Re: Discussion topic - rewriting (future) history....?

On 21/10/2011 12:54 PM, Indy wrote:
>> That's where I'm happy to admit (and have admitted) that the only way
to
>> know for sure is to see national sales figures, which we'll never
get.
>> We can draw analogies, but they're only analogies.  I've heard the
happy
>> stories too -- but I've heard more stories like what we've got around
here
>> in Hamilton then stories about growth, continuity, etc.
>>
> I'd like to hear those stories, because other than your note about the
> Hamilton gaming environment, I'm not seeing any declines.
> [...]

Well, most of the happy stories I've heard of are stuff I've heard on
the
list, or from friends of friends based in Toronto.  And the one store
still
in the area that cares minis, they're still running weekly tournaments
and
such.

But, when the wholesaler isn't carrying as much product any more (I
double checked, they still stock some stuff, they're just not carrying
as
much as they used to) there's something going on.

Maybe it's just Canada.  *shrug*

>> Look, trust me, I'm hoping I'm wrong on this.  But, what hard data is
out
>> there seems to suggest that glory days of miniature gaming are over,
and
>> it's going to be a niche segment in an industry that is turning more
toward
>> more 'traditional' boardgames.
>
> I want to see the hard data you're looking at. Seriously. I'm just not
> seeing what it is you're seeing. I think we're now in the glory days
of
> miniatures gaming, not at all past it.

Well, as I said, I can't find numbers for miniature gaming sellers as
whole.
I'm looking at print runs for wargames and rulesets and extrapolating.
For example, SJG is planning a 3000 print run for Ogre 6e.  GMT Games
usually
sells out with print runs of 3000 to 5000.  Games Workshop revenue is
flat
over the past 3 years.	Little bits and pieces I've read over the
Internet
over the past several years.

Admittedly, maybe I'm just used to larger numbers.  Most of my
work/interest was computer games and stuff, so, I might be used to
much larger numbers.  Maybe having "only" 5000 people interested in a
certain topic in a region like North America is actually good.

>> That's my opinion, because that's what the data suggests to me. 
*shrug*
>> It doesn't mean gaming is bad.  It just means we're in a niche hobby.
>>
>
> It's always been a non-mainstream hobby, and I don't think anyone,
least of
> all you, said gaming was bad.  I'm just hearing you say that
miniatures
> gaming is done, whereas I, Tom, and several others are suggesting to
you
> otherwise.  :-)

Well, I'm willing to admit I'm wrong.  But, if you're distrustful by my
anecdotal evidence, I can be distrustful of yours.  :)	You almost have
me convinced, because I WANT to be convinced... but, at best, it creates
a conflicting picture.	In the end, if all these people are adopting the
hobby
nationwide (and assuming America/Canada as a single unified market
culturally 
in terms of minis), where's the money?	Where's the chatter?  Most of
all,
where are the GZG ECC registrations?  :)

JGH

-- 
** Jerry Han - jhan@warpfish.com - http://www.warpfish.com/jhan -
TBFTGOGGI **
My heart has been worn, but it ain't broke;It may hiccup and cough black
smoke
It may seem old, but it still runs; My love has laces that won't come
undone
					-- Jason Plumb, "Satellite"