Re: Military Strengths was First Order of Business

Steven spake thusly upon matters weighty: 

Well, I don't know right now. But here's my quick baseline. All 
doubling rates should be between 20 and 50 years .... based on your 
estimate of quality and culture of a society - higher quality of life 
breeds lower birth rates and culture affects it. 

So take the population today, and assume we have 180 years till then 
- I can't remember all of who are in the NSL today, but find their 
populaitons, add them up, add a fudge factor (the gzg world lets 
dissidents grow) and probably assume a doubling period of 40 years 
(45 for NAC, so 40 for NSL seems about right). That means you'll have 
doubled your pop (I assume unlimited growth - I've used a slower 
doubling time to account for some restriction and I've also accounted 
for cheap stardrive and other space living here too) 4 and a bit 
times.... but since it is a compounding that is 2^4.5  which would be 
somewhere between 16 and 32 times. So say 20 times to be 
conservative. So take current day NSL (or 80% to account for 
departures of people) pop and multiply by 20. 

I have (but it has had to be shelved due to work) a project to 
spreadsheet the year by year growth of all the major powers which 
lets me look at the impact of varyious growth rates and add in 
factors affecting pop such as wars and disasters and post-war booms. 
But that's a lot of work, and I'm too darn busy at the present. 

> 
> Thomas,
> 
> Very good, what is your ideas on the size of the NSL total population?
> 
> 
> Steven
> 
> 
> On Mon, 8 Feb 1999, Thomas Barclay wrote:
> 
> <snip>
> > 
> > Now, pit that against the NAC of 11 Billion with the same ratio 
> > (rough figures)
> > Army: 350K excellent, 2.3M okay, 42 M reservists
> > Navy: 700K excellent, 2.3M okay, 18 M reservists
> > Marines: 350K excellent, 2.3M okay, 11 M reservists
> > 
> > Or even worse, the ESU with (conservatively) 33 Billion
> > Army: 1M excellent, 7M okay, 120 M reservists
> > Navy: 2M excellent, 7M okay, 55M reservists
> > Marines: 1M excellent, 7M okay, 30M reservists
> > 
> <snip>
> >  
> > /************************************************
> > Thomas Barclay		 
> > Voice: (613) 831-2018 x 4009
> > Fax: (613) 831-8255
> > 
> >  "C makes it easy to shoot yourself in the foot.  C++ makes
> >  it harder, but when you do, it blows away your whole leg."
> >  -Bjarne Stroustrup
> > **************************************************/
> > 
> 
> 
>				 Steven Arrowsmith
>			    www.public.usit.net/arrowjr
>			       steven@arrowsmith.net
>				dredd@quake.usit.net
>
________________________________________________________________________
_______
> 
>		      I Would Rather live a Lie, Thinking I Can.
>			   Than know The Truth That I Can't
>
________________________________________________________________________
_______
> 
/************************************************
Thomas Barclay		     
Voice: (613) 831-2018 x 4009
Fax: (613) 831-8255

 "C makes it easy to shoot yourself in the foot.  C++ makes
 it harder, but when you do, it blows away your whole leg."
 -Bjarne Stroustrup
**************************************************/