Re: More future history questions - India

On 17/01/2012 19:49, John Tailby wrote:
> The UK is interesting, it lost most of its sources of raw materials
and its economic base of manufacturing was wrecked by its trade union
movement so now it struggles to work out what its economy will make /
do. Going into the EU looks like a bad move for the Brits: they propped
up French famers for years under the common agricultural policy and
ended up paying a lot higher prices for comodities than they needed.
>
> Ditching the EU and getting back to its sources of supply from the
Commonweallth might be the best move it could do.
Unfortunately, this assumes that the "traditional" sources of supply in 
the Commonwealth will still be there and are interested in doing 
business with the Poms. Having been abandoned by the UK when it became 
obsessed with Europe back in the 1970s, and then in some cases 
undermined by European exporters dumping surplus goods elsewhere at 
unrealistic prices, Commonwealth suppliers had to look elsewhere for 
business, and those who survived will have different preferred markets. 
Oh, sure, they'd happily sell to the Brits if they have the capacity, 
but I'd want to see the numbers before I'd be prepared to say that it 
would boost the UK economy that much: a combination of shipping costs 
and charging what the customer wiil bear (basic capitalism coupled with 
a slight wish to soak the Mother Country for all they can get as revenge

for being discarded previously) could well mean that the British find 
that the Commonwealth isn't that much cheaper than Europe, subsidies or 
no. I don't insist on this, but I think it possible.

Of course, that depends on the UK leaving Europe in the first place, and

I doubt the likelihood of that. For every "Euro-sceptic", as they're 
known here, there's a Europhile; add to that the political trouble 
there'd be from the environmentalists regarding the increase in 
long-distance shipping and associated increased emissions, and I can't 
see anyone having the testicular fortitude, much less the popular 
support, to do it. This may change, but it'll take a while, and in that 
time, the former sources of supply will move further and further away 
from the UK.

Phil