Re: more future history questions

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G'day Tom,

>> [Tom] I have two subpoints to make: Israel, in your scenario,

>I think this was a slip of the typing fingers Tom, but just to be clear
this isn't "my scenario" its most certainly Mr Friedman's

[Tom again] I understood it was Mr. Friedman's used as a basis for your
own
projected or altered conclusion and thus I figured it was part of your
scenario to have adopted his baseline and develop from. That's where
that
comment came from. Apologies as I'm not trying to mis-attribute
anything.

>> [Tom] Given they are a basket case today....

> They're 14th largest economy in the world, not exactly a basket case -
though in absolute terms the EU as a bloc rates above the US so maybe
its
not 100% clear cut ;)

[Tom again] As I made the point elsewhere, Russia has a high GDP. I will
bet if you could track the % of GDP that ends up in the pockets of the
citizenry vs. the kleptocrats, you'd find that most of it goes by a mix
of
legal and illegal means into the pockets of the kleptocrats, to a
greater
extent than in some other places.

They have virtually zero effort at solving murders of journalists with a
high likelihood the powers that be in the state (aka also the
kleptocrats
and organized crime heads) don't really care as they ordered the
killings.
The Spetsnaz are a contract army that half the time works for the mob.
The
FSB has ties to the mob as does the police. Their is little delineation
between oligarchs, those in political power, and organized crime. Power
rotates around after Mr. Putin in a rather hilarious farce of
democracy-in-name-only.

Is it the worst place in the world? By no means. Some very smart folks.
It
has some good high tech centers and Moscow seems to be somewhat modern.

On the other hand, it isn't far outside of those few centers you see the
vast modern/not-so-modern divide and the huge economic disparities.
Capitalism and a very messed up post-Soviet political system have made a
small caste of the elite very wealthy. It hasn't done much for anyone
else
(arguably, they've backslid noticably).

So, I say GDP is a bad measure of their state and they are a basket
case.
To not be a basket case, they need to sort out the messed up polity, the
corruption in their business and law enforcement and judiciary, and to
address some of the great disparities in the country in prosperity (who
gets it and how).

Tom