Re: [GZG] [OFFICIAL] Question: was Re: [SG3]: What if?

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http://mead.CSUA.Berkeley.EDU:1337/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/gzg-lOn Feb
10, 2008 3:59 AM, Samuel Penn <sam@glendale.org.uk> wrote:

> On Sunday 10 February 2008 08:36:30 Richard Bell wrote:
> > On Feb 8, 2008 1:53 AM, Samuel Penn <sam@glendale.org.uk> wrote:
> > > The main advantage here is that UAVs have the potential to be
> > > mass produced in a very short space of time. You can go from
> > > a small number (and low expense) of UAVs in peacetime, to lots
> > > of UAVs simply by throwing money at some factories.
> > >
> > No, it is nowhere that easy.
> >
> > The cheapest way to build a small number of UAVs is to not build a
> factory
> > and produce a small number of what could be called preproduction
units.
>  If
> > you build the capability to mass produce them, a small number will
be
> > prohibitively expensive.  An important question is what does the
factory
> do
> > between production runs?
>
> It's easier than building lots of manned aircraft, and training the
> pilots.

Easier, yes.  However, nearly everything is easier than building manned
aircraft.  A UAV is not a simpler aircraft, it is a smaller aircraft.  A
UAV
with the identical capabilities as a raptor will be very nearly the same
size.  Current UAV's are cheaper than manned aircraft, because
expectations
of what they will be doing are relatively low.

>
>
> Assuming a major war (which doesn't result in total annihilation of
> both sides within 30 minutes), you'll have time and incentive to build
> the factories to build the UAVs. UAVs lost in the early stages of
> the war don't result in pilot loss, so the old pilots just fly the
> newly produced UAVs.
>
> If you lose aircraft, you also have to spend time training up good
> pilots. I don't have figures on how long it takes to build a modern
> fighter, or how long it takes to train a modern pilot, but I'd be
> surprised if the first is longer than the second. Regardless, doing
> one rather than both is going to be cheaper.

Unless the number of UAV's flown remains constant, you will be training
pilots, anyways.  I accept that  UAV pilots  will not have to learn
g-compensation,  but every other aspect of  UAV pilot training that is
easier than  manned aircraft training  is due to  the UAV being less
capable
(excepting automated landings by net).

>
>
> Why couldn't your example of how aircraft factories are kept running
> in peace time also work with UAV factories?
>

Adding 20 million dollars to the cost of a $100 million aircraft is
easier
to swallow than adding $1 million to the price of a $50,000 UAV.  I do
not
actually know if aircraft plants are kept open this way, but it is why
carriers are built at as slow a rate as they are.