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Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 10:24:39 -0600

Subject: RE: [GZG] laser classes

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Oops, my mistake - I was figuring each point was a 6, but a 6 does two
points and a re-roll (assuming no shields), so to get 19 points, there
are only 8 6's and a 4 or 5. The chances of rolling 8 sixes in a row
are 6 to the 8th power or 6x6x6x6x6x6x6x6 = 1 in 12,877,056 then to roll
a 4 or 5 (2 chances out of 6 or 1 in 3) = 1 in 38,631,168 or roughly 1/4
the chance to win Powerball. Odds go up exponentially for each event,
so twice as many events is not twice the odds, but much much more.
Example:
A single six = 1 in 6
Two sixes = 1 in 36
Three sixes = 1 in 216
Four sixes = 1 in 1296
Note that going from 2 sixes to 4 sixes is not twice the odds. These
assume completely statistically random dice. If the dice are biased or
you use rolling techniques (i.e. setting the dice) then the odds of
getting a 6 increase and the odds drop a lot. For instance if you can
roll in such a way to double the chance of a six to 1 in 3:
A single six = 1 in 3
Two sixes = 1 in 9
Three sixes = 1 in 27
Four sixes = 1 in 81
You then have a better chance of rolling three sixes than someone
rolling regular dice getting 2 sixes.
I'm not saying that long-shot events don't occur (see Powerball winners)
but they are statistically rare and usually if a bunch of rare events
happen it's probably because the odds are not what you think they are
and something else is affecting the result.
--Binhan
-----Original Message-----
From: gzg-l-bounces@lists.csua.berkeley.edu
[mailto:gzg-l-bounces@lists.csua.berkeley.edu] On Behalf Of Doug Evans
Sent: Monday, October 24, 2005 9:59 AM
To: gzg-l@lists.csua.berkeley.edu
Subject: RE: [GZG] laser classes
Birhan, it isn't that many in a row; boxcars are only one in thirty six;
to
the fourth power, that's only one in something like a million and a
half.
Course, followed by the three more points score bumps it a bit, but
definitely easier than powerball. ;->=
Let me know if I got it all whack; statistics definitely pure voodoo in
my
limited math.
The_Beast
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