Re: [SG2] weapons

On Tue, 25 Nov 2003 06:56:33 +0100 KH.Ranitzsch@t-online.de
(K.H.Ranitzsch) writes:
<snip>
>
>Under most other assumption, you will have several days' warning,
>presumably. Enough to assemble and equip troops (for an historical 
>example,
>see the Israelis in the Yom Kippur War), but not for training.
>

Speaking from History and recent first hand observation, if things go to
Hades in the 'normal' manner then you will know generally that something
is going down but where, when, and how are the essence of strategic and
tactical surprise... and Intentions is still much more an art then
Capabilities.  I might have a good ideas of what  SinoLaysian can do in
a
conflict with SpitofPlace but what are their intentions has much more to
do with their evaluation of what is 'acceptable, profitable, and
possible' then an outsider - especially if the culture being studied is
inherently different from the culture of the nation doing the studying. 
A recent comment (last week)  in an off the cuff conversation between
two
SEA analysts included this incredulous exchange - 

A: "It still amazes me that they can forgive, and even welcome us in
[deleted] after all the horrible things we did there in those years." 
(This person was there and 'did' some of those things - all within the
rules of war and, shall we say, 'recon'?)

B:  "I's the tourist dollars."

A:  "In part, but it seems to be a part of their culture to forgive us. 
More so then in the Middle East anyway."

>Yes, six weeks is pretty unlikely.
>

At least that can be the 'high end' IMO.  The biggest problem is knowing
when the 'threshold of Diplomacy' has been passed in time to reverse the
course of events and avoid armed conflict.  Assuming you want to.  One
definition of war is "An Armed Conflict between at least two nations 
when each thinks they can win at an acceptable cost; and at least two of
them are wrong."    Not my definition, not really accurate but has some
seeds of geopolitical truth.

>Greetings
>Karl Heinz
>

Gracias,
Glenn

Hx, SF, and Fx: 6 mm figures, Starships and 1:6K "Wet Navy" warships
are my main interest.	But I have forces in 6 through 25 mm FWIW...
>

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