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Thinking out loud. . .

From: John Atkinson <johnmatkinson@y...>
Date: Mon, 2 Sep 2002 20:22:16 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Thinking out loud. . .


Anyone got any good population estimates for the major
powers?  

The minor powers, most of them depend on when they get
their act together.  With cheerful assumptions, Africa
could have a couple billion inhabitants living well. 
With less cheerful assumptions, they could all be dead
by 2050.  Presumably they aren't.  LLAR's population
is 100% dependant on exactally how much spacelift
capacity you want to assume.  Etc.

Now, for the random handgrenades.

I was playing around with the NRE's population
figures, based on some conversations I had with Beth. 
Totals about 360 million or so.  With means that I
could reasonably maintain maybe 3.5 million military
personnel on active duty without shooting my economy
in the foot completely.  

Now, the Navy has in the neighborhood of 150,000
personell on space service.  Navies in the 22nd
century are not manpower intensive.  Even assuming 2
support weenies for every spacehand doing the Navy's
job, that leaves me 3 million for ground forces.

Now, let's assume that each division is approximately
20,000 troops, with another 20,000 troops per division
divvied up among the various EAC assets, and
infrastructure.  Not perfect, but good enough for
general purposes.  So 3 million dividied by 40K equals
75 division equivelants.  Spiffy!  I've got, near as I
can figure out, 52 or so division equivelants
(assumptions: 29 divisions, 5 heavy brigades = 2DE, 4
Kleisouri = 4 DEs, 4 Marine Brigades = 1DE, 46 Border
BNs = 5DE, 
20 Light Brigades = 7 DE, Stratores Division, Rest of
my Special Ops = 3 DE just because it looks close.)

It's not precise, but it's an interesting set of
planning figures.  Leaves me some padding as well. 
Now, I realize the US Army doesn't do nearly so well
in putting riflemen on the line (although this system
puts about 3600 trigger pullers on the line out of
each 40,000 troops, assuming 100 trigger pullers per
line company, which is more than a tank company has
[42] but less than a rifle company ['bout 130,
depending on your personal opinion of company HQ
people]), having had a total of 8 million soldier in
WWII and having fielded a lousy 89 divisions.  Plus
probably more than a few DEs in Cavalry Groups,
independant brigades, et al.

There's maybe. . . 800,000 bodies left over for
wierdness like wet navies or planetary aerospace
defense forces and whatnot.

Oh, yeah, plus reservists.  I've only got 15 DE in
reservists.  I should crank that up to about equal to
my active force in numbers, although not in equipment.
 Probably the other 40 are militia-category
formations.

So, opinions?

John

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