Re: [FH] americas

I'm going to comment on some of John H's stuff, as well as Glenns.
Sorry,
John, missed your post somehow!

On Fri, 07 Jun 2002 12:15:05 EDT, Glenn M Wilson <triphibious@juno.com>
wrote:
>On Mon, 3 Jun 2002 17:27:20 -0700 (PDT) John Hamill <jwdh71@yahoo.com>
>writes:

<<snip>>

>An inside outsider view, cool.

That was me that was writing as the inside outsider! *G*

> A more interesting scenario is the one posited by 
>>science fiction writer S M Stirling in his short story 
>>"Roachstompers", where the sudden arrival to market of an alternative 
>>energy source (in this case working cold fusion) destroyed the 
>>economies of oil exporting states, including Mexico, and turned the 
>>southern border of the USA into a free-fire zone.

There's an interesting future history possibility: take the middle east
and
throw in an economic collapse due to the deployment of an alternate fuel
source. An unstable region just got _less_ stable...

> The biggest problem is fresh water. 
>
>Okay, this is the one that scares the shit out of me. 

Me too. It's all to likely. Also, there could be fighting (or at least
some
nastiness) north of the US border. Canada is the headland of a lot of
North
American water, and there's already agreements and pressure to sell
water to
the US. What happens if the taps start running dry and Canada starts
looking
out for Canadians first?

>>however, just a portion of the Mexican border areas are far mmore 
>>polluted than Houston, and they aren't doing anything about it. At 
>>least here we have a few laws about pollution.

The original question was about the US specifically, but it's
interesting to
throw in cross border pollution. Texas gets bad pollution from Mexico.
Ontario
gets pollution from the Ohio valley...

>Old people don't riot well, yet.

*L* Very true. On the other hand, you have people losing their life
savings to
save a loved one. As the population ages and parents start dying from
lack of
health care, or younger folks start losing their savings to keep parents
alive, you could see riots.

>>The health care situation in the US is extremely complicated, but in 
>>the method of paying for it, not in quality. 

In general, the US has the best health care quality in the world. This,
of
course, is not universal. The worst health care facilities in the US are
far
worse than those in the worst parts of Canada. I have met a lot of
people who
mention one specific Ouachita Parish hospital as not fit to take a dog
to. As
far as top end goes, I think every major nation has a hospital that's
ranked
as best or almost best in the world. In Toronto, Princess Margaret
hospital is
a world leader in cancer research. I understand that there's a hospital
in
Sweden that does amazing work with acoustic neuromas. 

However, when you talk on average, the US has a consistently high level
of
health care.

Paying for it, is another matter... John's comments get to the heart of
the
matter.

>True, more and less.  as an American Mongrel (you all know the mantra I
>expect) who looks very 'white' unlike some of my family I see this from
>several angles and it's a tricky thing to predict.  I think those areas
>where race and lack of opportunity to advance at all is mingled with
>success of other groups could turn out to be a (pardon the term)
>'tactical' problem in the GZG time line but, by itself, not a source of
>disintegration.

I think it could be a source of disintegration if someone tried to make
"political hay" out of it. But, you're right. I mentioned it more as a
tension
point. My comment to Beth was that it would probably take two or more
tension
points to cause a break up. 

>> Now Louisiana might be 
>>a special case, but it would take a lot more than some theological 
>>disagreements to spark a disintegration of the US. The vast majority 
>>of Americans are people who believe in some sort of religion, but very

>>few are seriously fanatical about it.

I think the flash point where religion is concerned would be with a
clash
between religion and science. Religion, per se, won't do it. Take, for
instance, the whole stem cell debate, or abortion, or human cloning.
What, for
instance, would happen if fetal tissue (and only that tissue)  held stem
cells
that cured a particular type of cancer? This could turn into a very
nasty
debate, one that could rip apart a country.

>Yes, but that is more a tactical then a strategic problem.  Although it
>provides the means for revolt/disruption/disintegration.  Concord
anyone?

True, unless someone decides to put gun control into the constitution
(i.e.
take out the... uh... 4th ammendment? I'm not sure which it is). This
could
result in a flash point.

>>As someone who has lived most of his life around hunters and sportsman

>>I can agree. Away from the major metropolitan areas, in the areas that

>>still hold to that lifestyle, there would be no way that severe gun 
>>control legislation on the federal level would be enforcable, and it 
>>would cause a split in the country, or rather, complete a split that 
>>happened a long time ago. 

Living in Louisiana, the "Sportsman's Paradise" (apparently sportswomen
aren't
as enamoured by it, *grin*) and having _just now_ heard a gun go off
(talk
about timing) I can agree with this!

>Agricultural support/cost of food.   How do you want to pay for your
>food?

I didn't put this down as the small farmer is collapsing in the US. A
recent
news clip said that the average age of a farmer in the US is 56, up from
50
just a few years ago (indicating that the number of younger farmers
coming
into the business is near zero, if not negative). This means farming
will
devolve to huge conglomerates, which already form a huge amount of the
agribusiness.

>That and a big rash of more than normal stupid.  Not impossible, just
>requires more "work" to happen.

Oh, I can agree with that, too. Never underestimate the power of
stupidity,
however!

Allan Goodall		       agoodall@hyperbear.com
http://www.hyperbear.com

"At long last, the earthy soil of the typical, 
unimaginable mortician was revealed!" 
 - from the Random H.P. Lovecraft Story Generator: