Re: [FH] americas

 
  Allan Goodall <agoodall@att.net> wrote: 
On Fri, 31 May 2002 15:09:27 +1000, Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:

>The final straw may need to be internal, but I was wondering if
external
>factors may set the scene, or help to.

Well, from a Canadian living in the Deep South, here are some
suggestions of
things that will hit a boiling point in the next 50 years or so.

- Oil. This is going to be a world wide issue. There's something like
reserves
only until 2030 to 2050. The US may be poised better than any other
country to
develop things like fuel cell cars, but the US is also the biggest user
of
gasoline (I think Canada is actually higher per capita). What happens
when the
oil starts to run out, but interest groups and lobbyists have
successfully
stalled the implementation of alternative fuel sources?

I think that when the oil begins to run out (which I seriously doubt
will happen very soon, world estimates of oil reserves keep getting
larger), there will be several solutions waiting in the wings, ready to
be implemented. A more interesting scenario is the one posited by
science fiction writer S M Stirling in his short story "Roachstompers",
where the sudden arrival to market of an alternative energy source (in
this case working cold fusion) destroyed the economies of oil exporting
states, including Mexico, and turned the southern border of the USA into
a free-fire zone.

- The Environment. Louisiana has a rotten track record for air pollution
and
water pollution. It's only "bright spot" is that it lives beside Texas
which
has a worse track record. The biggest problem is fresh water. Water runs
downhill, which generally means from the north to the south in North
America.
If states or countries (i.e. Canada) start hoarding water upstream,
you'll see
major infighting downstream.

Heh. Go on, complain about Texas, I'll see you the Houston metroplex and
raise you the entire southern border region, which I happen to live in.
The major pollution is in the Houston area, which occasionally give the
Los Angeles area a run for it's money as the Most Polluted Metro Area In
The US (well, so some of the numbers say, there is much noise from the
Houston area that the numbers are being cooked, as well as the BIG
difference in populationbetween the two), however, just a portion of the
Mexican border areas are far mmore polluted than Houston, and they
aren't doing anything about it. At least here we have a few laws about
pollution.

- Health Care. The US health care system is awful. The quality of health
care
is good... if you can afford it. Most employers offer health insurance,
but
often you have to pay for it yourself (the only "benefit" is that the
employer
lets you into the health plan). Far too many Americans think they
qualify for
Medicaid when they don't, and far too many are going to have to rely on
Medicare. Add in an aging population and this is going to be a big issue
in
the next decade or two, bigger than it is now. Okay, not enough to
trigger
warfare, so add a new disease. Something slow and dibilitating,
something that
would hit a certain large sector of the population. A flu outbreak
wouldn't do
it, as the government would probably give out free shots. It would have
to be
something really nasty that causes a burden on part of the country but
maybe
not on another part. For instance, Louisiana has had a problem with
encephalitis the last couple of years. The place where I live has had 70
cases
in the last year and a couple of deaths. Ratchet that up a bit, add in a
federal government with other pressures that is slow to give, say, the
Southern states (or, if you want CalTex, those two regions) money to
fight a
problem like this, and you have a major case of social unrest.

The health care situation in the US is extremely complicated, but in the
method of paying for it, not in quality. There is a very good reason
that people come to the US to get medical care, there is some of the
finest treatment centers and best medical professionals practice here.
At the same time there is a distinct problem with the high cost of
average care in this country. There are many reasons for it, but what it
boils down to is the simple fact that there is no real free market in
medicine in the country, which is ironic due to free market reform being
touted everywhere else in the world by our government. You have in this
country one of the last remaining Guild systems (the AMA) , heavy
government interference and subsidies, and collusion between the
providers of medical care and the insurance companies that pay for it.
If it were anything else but the medical field, the whole system would
have been scrapped years ago as totally inefficient and dangerously
corrupt.

- Racial Tension. I've noticed being down here that the racial issue in
the US
is both more and less of a problem than most foreigners see depicted in
TV.
This would be too long to discuss, but it wouldn't be difficult to come
up
with a scenario where racially motivated violence blossomed into a major
problem. 

Race is a problem in the US, I've seen it from several sides, as one
half of an interracial couple, as a minority in a mostly monoracial
area, as someone who was racially profiled and stopped by police for
"driving while white", and as a student of history. But the biggest
problems seem to be in areas of the country that are outside the common
American culture, i.e. those areas that are behind the times such as
Louisiana, east Texas, sections of the Deep South and old eastern urban
areas. Ironically the area of the country that is known for praising
itself for "tolerence", California, seems to have the most problems with
racial tensions. 

- Religious Tension. I live in the bible belt. I see what intense
feelings
people have with religion. The division of church and state in the Deep
South
is mostly just lip service, with the federal government stepping in when
things get too far out of whack. Then you have the deeply held feelings
against cloning and stem cells derived from fetuses (feti?). The
abortion
debate has already had bloodshed. You also have fringe religions that
have
gone into violence (Waco, anyone?). It wouldn't be difficult to derive a
scenario around religious upheaval, particularly with modern scientific
discoveries.

The time of Christian Jihad is well over. I've lived most of my life in
areas of deeply held religious belief, I am not religious myself, and
have not had any serious problems with it. Now Louisiana might be a
special case, but it would take a lot more than some theological
disagreements to spark a disintegration of the US. The vast majority of
Americans are people who believe in some sort of religion, but very few
are seriously fanatical about it.

- Gun Control. Oooo! I said the two-words-that-shall-not-be-stated! This
has
the potential of being a major powder keg. Right now violent crime rates
are
down in the US. If they were to climb again, you might see cities and
states
(mostly in the north, maybe on the west coast) demanding gun control. I
live
in the Deep South... they really do mean, "You can take my gun away if
you can
pry it from my cold, dead fingers!"

As someone who has lived most of his life around hunters and sportsman I
can agree. Away from the major metropolitan areas, in the areas that
still hold to that lifestyle, there would be no way that severe gun
control legislation on the federal level would be enforcable, and it
would cause a split in the country, or rather, complete a split that
happened a long time ago. There is the definate possibility this will
happen in the future, and gives me the most worry for the continued
health of the country. It isn't just gun control though, it is a number
of issues the "city folk" and "country folk" just can't agree on, and
with a democratic government, the issue goes to the biggest number of
voters.  

I really don't think that the GZG timeline is realistic. However, if you
are
looking for a fictional way of breaking up the US, here are some ideas.
It
would probably take more than one at a time to do it. Mix and match two
or
three at once, and you could have your fictional reason for breaking up
the
continent.

Allan Goodall agoodall@hyperbear.com
http://www.hyperbear.com

As far as the realism of the timeline, it's a good bet to say it is
HIGHLY fictional. Be that as it may, you are right in that it would take
at least two or three ideas from your list, and maybe a couple more, to
do what the timeline says.

John

jwdh71@yahoo.com

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