Re: [FH] americas

On Fri, 31 May 2002 15:09:27 +1000, Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:

>The final straw may need to be internal, but I was wondering if
external
>factors may set the scene, or help to.

Well, from a Canadian living in the Deep South, here are some
suggestions of
things that will hit a boiling point in the next 50 years or so.

- Oil. This is going to be a world wide issue. There's something like
reserves
only until 2030 to 2050. The US may be poised better than any other
country to
develop things like fuel cell cars, but the US is also the biggest user
of
gasoline (I think Canada is actually higher per capita). What happens
when the
oil starts to run out, but interest groups and lobbyists have
successfully
stalled the implementation of alternative fuel sources?

- The Environment. Louisiana has a rotten track record for air pollution
and
water pollution. It's only "bright spot" is that it lives beside Texas
which
has a worse track record. The biggest problem is fresh water. Water runs
downhill, which generally means from the north to the south in North
America.
If states or countries (i.e. Canada) start hoarding water upstream,
you'll see
major infighting downstream.

- Health Care. The US health care system is awful. The quality of health
care
is good... if you can afford it. Most employers offer health insurance,
but
often you have to pay for it yourself (the only "benefit" is that the
employer
lets you into the health plan). Far too many Americans think they
qualify for
Medicaid when they don't, and far too many are going to have to rely on
Medicare. Add in an aging population and this is going to be a big issue
in
the next decade or two, bigger than it is now. Okay, not enough to
trigger
warfare, so add a new disease. Something slow and dibilitating,
something that
would hit a certain large sector of the population. A flu outbreak
wouldn't do
it, as the government would probably give out free shots. It would have
to be
something really nasty that causes a burden on part of the country but
maybe
not on another part. For instance, Louisiana has had a problem with
encephalitis the last couple of years. The place where I live has had 70
cases
in the last year and a couple of deaths. Ratchet that up a bit, add in a
federal government with other pressures that is slow to give, say, the
Southern states (or, if you want CalTex, those two regions) money to
fight a
problem like this, and you have a major case of social unrest.

- Racial Tension. I've noticed being down here that the racial issue in
the US
is both more and less of a problem than most foreigners see depicted in
TV.
This would be too long to discuss, but it wouldn't be difficult to come
up
with a scenario where racially motivated violence blossomed into a major
problem. 

- Religious Tension. I live in the bible belt. I see what intense
feelings
people have with religion. The division of church and state in the Deep
South
is mostly just lip service, with the federal government stepping in when
things get too far out of whack. Then you have the deeply held feelings
against cloning and stem cells derived from fetuses (feti?). The
abortion
debate has already had bloodshed. You also have fringe religions that
have
gone into violence (Waco, anyone?). It wouldn't be difficult to derive a
scenario around religious upheaval, particularly with modern scientific
discoveries.

- Gun Control. Oooo! I said the two-words-that-shall-not-be-stated! This
has
the potential of being a major powder keg. Right now violent crime rates
are
down in the US. If they were to climb again, you might see cities and
states
(mostly in the north, maybe on the west coast) demanding gun control. I
live
in the Deep South... they really do mean, "You can take my gun away if
you can
pry it from my cold, dead fingers!" 

I really don't think that the GZG timeline is realistic. However, if you
are
looking for a fictional way of breaking up the US, here are some ideas.
It
would probably take more than one at a time to do it. Mix and match two
or
three at once, and you could have your fictional reason for breaking up
the
continent.

Allan Goodall		       agoodall@hyperbear.com
http://www.hyperbear.com

"At long last, the earthy soil of the typical, 
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