Re: [DS2] Defender/Attacker ratios and fixed defenses

On Wed, 10 Apr 2002 13:03:04 +0100, Ground Zero Games
<jon@gzg.keme.co.uk>
wrote:

>From what I've read, the 3:1 ratio is the suggested ideal if the
attacker
>wants to ENSURE victory (as far as you ever can, and all other factors
>notwithstanding) by sufficiently overwhelming force. I'd think 2:1
would
>give a better game balance with a chance for either side to win.

The historically given ratio is 3:1. This is outlined rather well in
_Understanding War: A History and Theory of Combat_ by Col. Trevor N.
Dupuy,
US Army (ret.). Funny enough, I've been reading _Understanding War_
recently.

Dupuy puts it in a simple chart format on page 34 of his book (best
viewed in
a fixed pitch font):

Personnel	 Attacker		    Defender
Strength	  Success      Outcome	     Success
Ratio		  Certain     Uncertain      Certain
---------	 --------     ---------     --------

Attacker to	    300%	 200%	      150%
Defender	  or more		     or less
Strength Ratio

Defender to	     33%	  50%	       67%
Attacker	  or less		     or more
Strength Ratio

However, combat strength, or rather combat power, is given by the
following
formula: P = N x V x Q, where P is combat power, N is number of troops,
V are
the variable circumstances that affect troops in combat, and Q is the
quality
of the troops.

Historically 3:1 works well, but realize that it's troops engaged, not
just
troops hanging around the battle area.

Further in the book he talks about things like force multipliers and
other
things. The 3:1 odds were a lot easier to use in the musket era on down
into
the ancient era. Today, with smart bombs, nuclear, biological and
chemical
weapons, and high tech surveillance systems, it's quite difficult to
calculate
the actual strength of a particular force. Dupuy complicates the P = NVQ
formula by converting N into force strength, and Q into a combat
effectiveness
value. 

It's a good read for anyone interested in a theory of combat.

Allan Goodall		       agoodall@hyperbear.com
http://www.hyperbear.com

"At long last, the earthy soil of the typical, 
unimaginable mortician was revealed!"