Re: Interstellar Shipping

Nice analysis. A few comments:

From: "Allan Goodall" <agoodall@att.net>
> On Fri, 11 Jan 2002 07:02:29 -0800, Sean Bayan Schoonmaker

> Traditionally colonization has been due to several reasons:
> - population pressure resulting in famine and disease. (This is the
> traditional reason in sci-fi, though historically this been a reason
for
> populations to spread out, not set out for uncharted
islands/continents.)

I guess the Irish potato famine and associated emigration might be
quoted as
an example. Though that was more crop failure than population pressure.

> - escaping persecution. (Escaping religious persecution was a biggie
in
the
> 17th and 18th centuries.)

Looking at the present day situation, there may be quite a lot of people
who
would like to emigrate to a cozy little planet for that reason - or to
any
place on earth that would let them in.

> The most likely reason for colonization in the Tuffleyverse would be
> population pressure and wealth. I've heard that we've only got easily
> attainable fossil fuel reserves until 2030 to 2050. After that, it
gets
> much harder to find oil (lets face it; they aren't making any more
> dinosaurs...).
> Pulling ore out of a planet and shipping refined metals and other
goods
> would be a big incentive for colonies.

The problem I see here is that most of these would require bulk shipping
of
goods. Typically, it's high-value goods that drive initial trade and
colonization. Bulk shipping comes last. Very rare materials that are of
value in small quantities would be the first candidate.

> Jon hasn't really postulated why the mass colonization effort. A good
sci-fi
> reason would be some super bug or virus that's ravaging the
population,
albeit
> fairly slowly. That, however, would go against the whole idea of
colonies
> having close contact with Mother Earth.

A slow acting virus ravaging the population ? AIDS is not that far off
this
mark.

> The resource idea is probably the easiest one to live with. Food
production,
> ore mining, oil drilling (even if not used in fuels, it is still
needed
for
> plastics and polymers), to name the obvious ones. Would these colonies
be
nice
> places to live? I could see some worlds being essentially strip mined
for
ore,
> leaving a desolate wasteland in a couple hundred years. I can see
others
as
> being far more liveable.

The model of space as a source of raw materials is, for me, fairly
plausible
within the solar system. But over interstellar distances ?

Greetings
Karl Heinz