Re: [FH] Great Powers Revised

On Tue, 14 Dec 1999 21:43:38 -0500, "Laserlight"
<laserlight@quixnet.net>
wrote:

>Noam said
>>IMO, If Tawan isn't part of  ESU, IC, or OU, it's probably either
>>a radioactive/chemical wasteland as a result of war or one of the
>stronger
>>minor powers.
>
>Same trio I came up with for Taiwan to be annexed by, but which one?

Personally, I think none of the above...

>
>>> It also gives a clue as to the most likely arena for political
>action
>>> in 2183: ESU attempts to woo Japan away from NAC.
>>
>>Mayhap. But if Japan keeps it tech edge, it won't be listening to too
>much
>>wooing from any major power. It'll be able to stand on its own and
>forge
>>alliances on its terms.
>
>True--but the ESU would be happy just to get Japan _away_ from NAC.

Japan is unlikely to be wooed into joining the ESU. Too many problems
historically. Okay, this IS the far future, and we know how alliances
change
(Britain once owned chunks of France, then fought against France, then
became
an ally; in this century alone Britain was best friends with Japan, then
fought a war against Japan, and is now cordial with Japan). 

Assuming that things aren't patched up (50 years later, China is still
rightfully bitter at Japan), both Russia and China have historically
been at
odds with Japan. So has Korea. There's a LOT of anti-Japanese sentiment
in the
ESU to be overcome. Especially since a Japan in the ESU would tend to
rise to
a position of dominance.

Going by Jon's naming of the figures in Stargrunt, he seems to suggest
that
the Japanese forces are mercenary forces. This suggests Japan has formed
a
somewhat belligerent neutrality, a nation housing off shore dataforts
and
renting soldiers to the highest bidder. The Japanese don't appear to be
part
of the ESU, or any other, structure. 

Allan Goodall		       agoodall@interlog.com
Goodall's Grotto: http://www.interlog.com/~agoodall/

"Surprisingly, when you throw two naked women with sex
toys into a living room full of drunken men, things 
always go bad." - Kyle Baker, "You Are Here"