Re: PDS vs SMs/The GZG Digest V1 #608

Robertson, Brendan wrote:

> I think you're math is a little funny, Tom.

Yes, but so are yours :-/

> average missiles per salvo = 3.5
> average PDS kills = 0.8 => 4 PDS per salvo
>
> so 14 PDS would eliminate 3-4 complete salvo's on average if split.

Except that the average PDS doesn't kill 0.8 missiles unless there's
an infinite number of missiles in the salvo. 

Since there are only 1D6 missiles on target from each SM salvo, the
first PDS against a particular salvo only intercepts an average of 0.71
missiles. The second PDS against the same salvo only intercepts on
average 0.59 more missiles, and it goes downhill fairly fast after
that..

Sure, 14 PDS have a reasonable chance to stop 3 SM salvoes completely.
Don't expect them to do it every time, though - IIRC you'll still get
an average of almost one missile per salvo past defenses that heavy.
Not very painful compared to what you could expect without those PDSs
of course, but quite able to sting.

Regards,

Oerjan Ohlson
oerjan.ohlson@telia.com

"Life is like a sewer.
  What you get out of it, depends on what you put into it."
- Hen3ry