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RE: [HIST] IAS Population

From: Beth Fulton <beth.fulton@m...>
Date: Mon, 08 Mar 1999 09:33:29 +1000
Subject: RE: [HIST] IAS Population

G'day guys,

	First up thanks for all the response. Now on to my
cut of things (using back of the envelope calcs - i.e.
noting special). 

	UK has population of 57million (1995) and at current growth
rate of 0.1% that'll hit a whopping 65 million by 2135. That means
in 36 years (2099-2135) Albion has to match that. Even with
fairly hefty immigration you're still looking at a growth rate of about
6-7% to manage it. Now if that growth rate continues beyond 2135
up to 2188 (they've got a whole planet to play with) you're looking at 
about 250 million+ on Albion alone. Add to this the fact that if you
see current growth rates continuing for all the nations which go to
make up the NAC on Earth (see note below) and by 2188 the NAC
has at least 8-10 billion! Add to this another 16 systems of planets
I haven't tossed into the mix yet and we're looking at hefty
So may be 300 million on my one decent planet isn't so bad for
a minor nation after all? Anyway just a thought - or am I just trying
to justify here? Probably :)

Now that note, if the UN's on the money (with respect to zero growth), 
they expect us to have a global population of 10 billion by the close
of the 21st century (and my numbers above will be way out), on the
other hand if you just fit a curve to historical growth patterns you get
29 billion (sees me closer to the mark). And for a number of reasons,
which I'm not going to get into here, I'm a tad sceptical about the UN's
growth projections - hey I'm a grad student we're trained to be
sceptical ;)

Thanks again for all you're input.


Elizabeth Fulton
c/o CSIRO Division of Marine Research
GPO Box 1538
Phone (03) 6232 5018 International +61 3 6232 5018
Fax (03) 6232 5199 International +61 3 6232 5199


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