Re: [HIST] Population question.

Beth spake thusly upon matters weighty: 

Well, I have (in my mind) thought of doubling periods between 40 and 
60 years from whatever initial pop, and the longer period being 
chosen if there was a lot of natality or loss due to tough conditions 
or disease. So, to my mind, take the initial pop, and (in the simple 
answer where you don't account for net migration and net pop increase 
and things like war etc), just figure how many years it has been 
around, and with a doubling period of x (35-60 years... probably in 
the 50 year range), you'll get some good idea of the probable pop in 
2183/5....

Just a thought. Gives a good Ballpark #. 

> G'day one and all,
> 
>	The IAS is just about ready for global exposure, but before
> I put it forward I've got one question. You may have hashed
> this out already when I wasn't paying attention - especially
> on the gzg-pedia list - but what population sizes did you
> guys finally nut out for the big guys/minor nations/your own
> inventions? I've run a number of simple simulations based
> on a range of feasible assumptions and was just wondering
> what ranges you'd come up with so I could go with the
> most appropriate outcome.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Beth
> 
>
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>
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> Elizabeth Fulton
> c/o CSIRO Division of Marine Research
> GPO Box 1538
> HOBART 
> TASMANIA 7001
> AUSTRALIA
> Phone (03) 6232 5018 International +61 3 6232 5018
> Fax (03) 6232 5199 International +61 3 6232 5199
> 
> email: beth.fulton@marine.csiro.au
> 
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