Re: [FT] OFFICIAL RULING REQUEST (was Re: Couple of questions)

-MWS- wrote in reply to Laserlight:

> > Your example here is not exactly right because you neglected the 
> > possibility of PDS killing more missiles than are on target, which
> > when taken into effect increases the  average damage.  No time to
> > work out the figures right now but the effect should be fairly
small.
> 
> You're right, but the effect is larger than I would have thought.
Using
a
> matrix sum to work out the figures manually, a salvo missile against 1

> PDS has an actual average damage of 3.078 dice for 10.77 points of 
> damage -  instead of the 2.7 dice/points I originally estimated. 

This is wrong. I'm not sure where you went wrong, but if you ignore the
PDS re-rolls in your matrix below you'll find that on average 103/36 =
2.861 missiles manage to lock on and get past the single PDS; 2.861*3.5
=
10.014. I'd find it very strange if the PDS re-rolls *increase* the
damage :-/

I got the average SM salvo damage vs 1 PDS to 9.75, which is a 3.2%
increase from the "intuitively expected" value.

Here's the matrix again:

> S/P| 1  2  3	4  5  6
> ---+-----------------   
>  1 | 1  1  1	0  0  0
>  2 | 2  2  2	1  1  0
>  3 | 3  3  3	2  2  1, reroll PDS
>  4 | 4  4  4	3  3  2, reroll PDS
>  5 | 5  5  5	4  4  3, reroll PDS
>  6 | 6  6  6	5  5  4, reroll PDS

The difference between the real and the "expected" averages increase
when
you add more PDS - vs 2 PDS, I got the average damage to 7.62 (+14.5%),
vs 3 PDS it seems to be 5.84 (+51.7%). I didn't have time to
double-check
these results, but they're at least lower than what they would be
without
the PDS re-rolls - I take that as a good sign <g>

Kevin's point about overloading the point defences is very true as well.
If you compare an SMR salvo with two MT-style missiles (same Mass, same
cost), you have to pit the SM salvo against twice the number of PDSs as
each MT missile meets - eg, if the target has 2 PDS the SM salvo would
inflict on average 7.62 pts compared to the 7 the MT missiles together
would (each one is shot at by a single PDS), ie +8.9%. Against 3 PDS the
SM salvo would inflict 5.84 pts compared to the 5.25 of the MT missiles
(+11%).

Since I haven't calculated the true average SM damage vs 4 PDS per salvo
I can't carry the comparision further, but... well, if the enemy has
that
many PDS, you probably shouldn't use any weapon vulnerable to it <g>

I submit that the extra range and (particularly) the ability of the MT
missiles to attack other targets than the closest one compensates for
the
slightly reduced damage compared to the SMs :-/

Regards,

Oerjan Ohlson
oerjan.ohlson@telia.com

"Life is like a sewer.
  What you get out of it, depends on what you put into it."
- Hen3ry