Re: Colony Critical Mass

Hi there!

Brian wrote:
[MUNCH]
> By self-sustaining, I mean enough people to avoid becoming inbred, >
produce
> food, shelter, purify water, and support light industry.
> Please respond for these two conditions to give me a range:
> 1) Colony on the Moon
> 2) Colony on an Earth-like world (plenty of food, water, minerals, >
etc.)

(Some barely informed speculation to follow)

I guess one of the critical points is "What tech level are you talking
about?"  With a high enough tech level, (or, rather, with the right
technologies), you can get a minimum colony size in the hundreds.  
(Genetic Engineering, Food replication technologies, "Simple" power
generation technologies i.e. 'Cold Fusion' turns out to work after
all with suitable modifications, that sort of thing.)

Avoiding that type of technical extreme, I'd say you need about 
a thousand people.  This also assumes that there is still some 
contact with the outside world i.e. new immigrants, supply ships,
something like that.  If you talk total isolation, you may need as 
much as ten thousand or more to survive in the extreme long term.

Some parallels could probably be drawn between colonization sizes and
the Polynesian experience during their Age of Colonization.  (circa
5-10000BC (?) )  Discover Magazine (Jared Diamond) has a couple of
fascinating articles on what happens when populations (i.e. colonies)
are cut off and forced to survive on their own.  (November 1997 has a 
great example.)

Beyond this, it's hard to get more specific without more specifics.
(8-)  Technology Level, frequency of contact with "Mother" culture, 
social aspects of colonizing culture, that sort of thing.  Indeed, 
the numbers I stated above for what I consider a 'typical' scenario,
are probably just nothing but garbage.

Hope this helps,
J.

-- 
 *** Jerry Han - jhan@idigital.net - http://www.idigital.net/jhan ***
 "The woods are lovely, dark, and deep; But I have promises to keep,
   And miles to go before I sleep, and miles to go before I sleep. "
 Robert Frost, "Stopping By Woods on a Snowy Evening"	- TBFTGOGGI