Fleet Initiative

My group thinks, and I have to agree, that the "fleet initiative
system", where the side with the most ships shoots first, is kind
of artificial and contrived.  And it can lead to some gamey tactics
like, "Shoot up the little ships first *solely* so I can get the
initiative in later rounds".  I wonder if there's a more natural way
of doing initiative?

Seems like these things could be factors in who gets to shoot first:
  * Quality of fire control systems
    (in a campaign game, you might have tech levels)
  * Crew quality and training
  * Command & Control -- who's got the best admiral or the
    best communications equipment?
  * Fleet morale
  * Tactical advantage (due to terrain or fleet positioning)
  * Weapon rate of fire?
  * A random factor (die roll)
  * Keeping the system simple

Any great ideas?  I'd like to accomodate some or all of the above
factors (plus the ones I overlooked :-) ), yet keep it simple enough
that you could figure it out in, say, 5-15 seconds.

Daryl