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Re: Shields, was Re: Armor (long)

From: Oerjan Ohlson <f92-ooh@n...>
Date: Mon, 11 Nov 1996 04:40:40 -0500
Subject: Re: Shields, was Re: Armor (long)

On 8 Nov 1996, Brian Bell wrote:

> Below are some stats that take into account losses to threshold rolls.
I have
> selected a Privateer (18 tons), Escort Cruiser (26 tons), and
Battledreadnought
> (60 tons). This shows the increasing damage protection and lower cost
(per point
> of protection) as ships increase in size. (Best displayed in a
mono-spaced font)
> 
> Average damage per Die
>   no screens: 0.666666
>   level 1:	0.5
>   level 2:	0.333333
>   level 3:	0.166666
> 
> Average dice per damage:
>   no screens: 1.49
>   level 1:	2.00
>   level 2:	3.00
>   level 3:	6.00
> 
> Chance to reduce screens at 1st threshold roll:
>   no reduction:	     83% (5/6,10/12,15/18) (.833333)
>   loose at least 1 level:  17% (1/6, 2/12, 3/18) (.166666)
>   loose at least 2 levels: 8-11% (1/12,2/18) (.083333-.111111)
>   loose all screens:	      6% (1/18) 	   (.055555)
>   *NOT cumulative! 17% contains the 8-11% which contains the 6%

No, not correct. If you have 1 shield, the chance to keep it after the 
first treshold check is 83.3333333.... %, yes. If you have 2 shields,
the 
chance to have both of them after the first check is (5/6)*(5/6) = 25/36

= 69.44444...%, the probability to lose both is (1/6)*(1/6) = 1/36 = 
2.7777...%, and the chance to lose one but not the other is 
1 - 25/36 - 1/36 = 10/36 = 27.777777...%.

The correct chances to lose/keep your shields are (repost) (FRN):

		    Treshold check number: 0	 1     2     3
Origingal level-1:
Level-1 				  100%	83%   56%   28%
Level-0 				   0%	17%   44%   72%

Original level-2:
Level-2 				  100%	69%   31%    8%
Level-1 				   0%	28%   54%   42% 
Level-0 				   0%	 3%   15%   50%

Original level-3:
Level-3 				  100%	58%   17%    2%
Level-2 				   0%	35%   41%   17%
Level-1 				   0%	 7%   33%   43%
Level-0 				   0%	0.5%   9%   38%

However, the chance that a ship which has already lost a shield in one 
treshold check will lose another one is not the same as the chance for a

ship which didn't lose shields in the first check to lose them... so I'm

not sure if I can simply take 'average' shield levels to determine how 
much damage a ship can absorb. I don't think I can, but I haven't done 
enough thinking on this yet.

Regards,

Oerjan Ohlson

"Father, what is wrong?"
"My shoes are too tight. But it does not matter, because
 I have forgotten how to dance."
- Londo Mollari

Oerjan Ohlson

"Father, what is wrong?"
"My shoes are too tight. But it does not matter, because
 I have forgotten how to dance."
- Londo Mollari

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