Re: Shields, was Re: Armor (long)
From: Oerjan Ohlson <f92-ooh@n...>
Date: Mon, 11 Nov 1996 04:40:40 -0500
Subject: Re: Shields, was Re: Armor (long)
On 8 Nov 1996, Brian Bell wrote:
> Below are some stats that take into account losses to threshold rolls.
I have
> selected a Privateer (18 tons), Escort Cruiser (26 tons), and
Battledreadnought
> (60 tons). This shows the increasing damage protection and lower cost
(per point
> of protection) as ships increase in size. (Best displayed in a
mono-spaced font)
>
> Average damage per Die
> no screens: 0.666666
> level 1: 0.5
> level 2: 0.333333
> level 3: 0.166666
>
> Average dice per damage:
> no screens: 1.49
> level 1: 2.00
> level 2: 3.00
> level 3: 6.00
>
> Chance to reduce screens at 1st threshold roll:
> no reduction: 83% (5/6,10/12,15/18) (.833333)
> loose at least 1 level: 17% (1/6, 2/12, 3/18) (.166666)
> loose at least 2 levels: 8-11% (1/12,2/18) (.083333-.111111)
> loose all screens: 6% (1/18) (.055555)
> *NOT cumulative! 17% contains the 8-11% which contains the 6%
No, not correct. If you have 1 shield, the chance to keep it after the
first treshold check is 83.3333333.... %, yes. If you have 2 shields,
the
chance to have both of them after the first check is (5/6)*(5/6) = 25/36
= 69.44444...%, the probability to lose both is (1/6)*(1/6) = 1/36 =
2.7777...%, and the chance to lose one but not the other is
1 - 25/36 - 1/36 = 10/36 = 27.777777...%.
The correct chances to lose/keep your shields are (repost) (FRN):
Treshold check number: 0 1 2 3
Origingal level-1:
Level-1 100% 83% 56% 28%
Level-0 0% 17% 44% 72%
Original level-2:
Level-2 100% 69% 31% 8%
Level-1 0% 28% 54% 42%
Level-0 0% 3% 15% 50%
Original level-3:
Level-3 100% 58% 17% 2%
Level-2 0% 35% 41% 17%
Level-1 0% 7% 33% 43%
Level-0 0% 0.5% 9% 38%
However, the chance that a ship which has already lost a shield in one
treshold check will lose another one is not the same as the chance for a
ship which didn't lose shields in the first check to lose them... so I'm
not sure if I can simply take 'average' shield levels to determine how
much damage a ship can absorb. I don't think I can, but I haven't done
enough thinking on this yet.
Regards,
Oerjan Ohlson
"Father, what is wrong?"
"My shoes are too tight. But it does not matter, because
I have forgotten how to dance."
- Londo Mollari
Oerjan Ohlson
"Father, what is wrong?"
"My shoes are too tight. But it does not matter, because
I have forgotten how to dance."
- Londo Mollari