Re: More future history questions

On 14/01/2012 11:04 PM, Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:

[MUNCH]

> Like I said interesting, but how plausible is it?

I've read the book myself, and was subscribed to Stratfor around
2004/2005
(loved the content, but, it was just too expensive to keep up as a
hobby).
I think it's plausible enough give the assumptions he's making. 
However,
as other people in the thread have pointed out, you have to wonder
whether
the assumptions he's making are valid.

In the long run though, counterfactual / "What If" history can be fun,
and
can be demonstrative in terms of finding key turning points.  But, once
you
explore past a certain point, it really does degenerate into a sci-fi or
fantasy story (especially since no future projection can
adequately compensate for 'Black Swan' events.)

So, I found the book illuminating in terms of the key things to watch:
the effect of technology on the military, potential new geopolitical
and rivals, the evolution of the "American Empire".  But, I wouldn't
consider it a slam against the book if (for example) Turkey doesn't
ascend to Great Power status in the next twenty years -- indeed, it
would be illuminating to see why it didn't the happen.	(The same way
the "Japanese Century" didn't occur, and why people right now expecting
the "Chinese Century" may be disappointed in the long run.)

In general, I think the best statement on "What If" is something
Sir John Hackett et al. wrote in "The Third World War: August 1985",
when commenting on the accuracy of his own "What If" history:

------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
"There is a nice story of a political prophet in Munich in 1928, who was
asked 
to prophesy what would be happening to the burghers of his city in five,

fifteen, twenty and forty years' time. He began: 'I prophesy that in
five 
years' time, in 1933, Munich will be part of a Germany that has just
suffered 
5 million unemployed and that is ruled by a dictator with a certifiable
mental 
illness who will proceed to murder 6 million Jews.'

His audience said: 'Ah, then you must think in 15 years' time we till be
in a 
sad plight.'

'No,' replied the prophet, 'I prophesy that in 1943 Munich will be part
of a 
Greater Germany whose flag will fly from the Volga to Bordeaux, from
northern 
Norway to the Sahara.'

'Ah, then you must think that in twenty years' time, we will be mighty
indeed.'

'No, my guess is that in 1948 Munich will be part of a Germany that
stretches 
from only from the Elbe to the Rhine, and whose ruined cities will
recently 
have seen production down to only 10 per cent of the 1928 level.'

'So you think we face black ruin in forty years' time?'

'No, by 1968 I prophesy that real income per head in Munich will be four
times 
greater than now, and that in the year after that 90 per cent of German
adults 
will sit looking at a box in a corner of their drawing rooms, which will
show 
live pictures of a man walking upon the moon.

They locked him up as a madman, of course."
------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

JGH

-- 
** Jerry Han - jhan@warpfish.com - http://www.warpfish.com/jhan -
TBFTGOGGI **
My heart has been worn, but it ain't broke;It may hiccup and cough black
smoke
It may seem old, but it still runs; My love has laces that won't come
undone
					-- Jason Plumb, "Satellite"