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Re: More future history questions

From: Tom B <kaladorn@g...>
Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2012 14:08:35 -0500
Subject: Re: More future history questions

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KHR, with whom I largely agree, said:

As to economics, I think that the ease of modern communications, travel
and
trade create a strong trend that skills, infrastructure and living
standards become more and more similar around the globe. There will 
still
be differences, but nowhere like the differences between industrial
nations
and the rest of the world at the beginning of the  20th century. This
means
that, give or take a factor of 2 or so, GDP per capita will be similar
everywhere and a nations' economic strength  will depend mainly on its
working-age population.

--------------

[Tom] My only argument with this is there are
cultural/political/economic
factors that will still distinguish the net outcome in societies.

For instance, Russia has a problem of corruption that is endemic and
that
saps up a lot of that GDP into the hands of a few. The US has this, but
to
a lesser extent (the US doesn't have the same murder stats as Russia:
80+%
solves except if you are a journalist, where it is 2%).

For another instance within my own country, any large project done in
Quebec will cost more money and there will be more wastage. Quebecois
have
come to expect the corruption and the graft and don't get a frothing
outrage on about it.

So, although I do agree that global economics in developed, connected
countries (and that will include some portions of India and China) will
certainly head in the direction you indicate, there will still be
sizable
differences based on corruption, politics, organized crime, etc. And you
can add to that some governments will work to keep their people ignorant
('if you only read one book, and that's all you need, read <insert
religious text of choice>') and their living standards back in the 7th,
11th, or 14th century....

Haiti is a mess and it is within a short hop of the most prosperous
nations
in the world. I don't forsee Aghanistan (the non-urban portion anyway)
becoming particularly prosperous anytime soon. Nor tractable, while I'm
thinking of it.

Tom

-- 
Only solitary men know the full joys of friendship. Others have their
family; but to a solitary and an exile, his friends are everything.* 
*--
Willa Cather (1873 - 1947)Solitudinem fecerunt, pacem appelunt
-- Publius Cornelius Tacitus (from the book Agricola, attributed to a
speech from Calgacus)

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