Re: More future history questions

Am 15.01.2012 05:04, schrieb Beth.Fulton@csiro.au:
> G'day,
>
> For work I recently read the book "The Next 100 Years" by George
Friedman. I'm not sure I really agree with some of his logic, but the
last few chapters made for an interesting sci-fi short story read.

Haven't read Friedman's book (or anything else by him, except maybe an 
article or two), but he has been around for quite some time commenting 
on US foreign policy. From comments by others, his predictions seem not 
to have been too accurate (but then, whose are?).

> So I'll do a quick summary here (sorry if this counts as spoilers) and
I wouldn't mind getting your opinion on how feasible it all seems.
>
> I won't bother going through all the economic ups and downs he
predicts,

If you want to do future history, demography and economics are the 
foundation, so they do deserve attention.

For the given timescale (a few decades) demography is pretty much a 
given, though as nations develop, growth may be slower than expected 
now. A point that is often overlooked is that China is aging quite 
rapidly, too, though it is, still, younger than Japan or Europe. Anotehr

point: countries with a large overhang of young people tend to have more

volatile politics.

As to economics, I think that the ease of modern communications, travel 
and trade create a strong trend that skills, infrastructure and living 
standards become more and more similar around the globe. There will 
still be differences, but nowhere like the differences between 
industrial nations and the rest of the world at the beginning of the 
20th century. This means that, give or take a factor of 2 or so, GDP per

capita will be similar everywhere and a nations' economic strength  will

depend mainly on its working-age population.

By implication, the US will soon fall behind China and India, several 
other large countries will rival European Countries and Japan.

Within the timescale, the main problem zone will still be Sub-Saharan 
Africa. Not to say there will not be problem spots elsewhere (Haiti, 
North Korea, Papua...)

Short of a major Nuclear War, I don't see anything that could stop this 
trend to more equal conditions around the globe.

More soon
Karl Heinz