Re: More future history questions

Oh boy this could open a can of worms or two.

Anyway here's my 2 cents (AUD) worth before I run for cover.

1) China is united, very united. There maybe cracks but that is true of 
USA, UK, Europe, Australia, Iran.....
2) Japan has a serious problem with an ageing population and loss of 
heavy industry.

Outcome: Japan never has the power/resources to take anything off China

3) China is still reliant, though less so with every pasiing year, on 
exports to Europe and USA to support/drive it's economy.
4) The major Western economies are in some trouble, Europe probably a 
lot but it remains to be seen just how much, partly as the result of 
supporting ageing populations.
5) China has been steppping in to some degree to prop up some European 
economies, and thus it's own
6) Continuing economic growth keeps most Chinese people happy under 
Communist rule, keeping the country united (see 1 above)

Outcome: China becoming increasingly interested in maintaining the 
status quo, at least economically, of the world until the middle of this

century.

7) Europe has an enormous issue with imigration both legal and illegal, 
from Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe (though the later is 
slowing). This in turn is driving the rise of extreme right wing 
politics even in places like liberal Netherlands. Negative outcomes if 
the ER wins, perhaps Positive outcomes if the Liberals/Socialists 
continue to hold sway. (For all you Yanks out there these terms are used

in a British/European sense not a US Republican sense)
8) The "Arab Spring" is still young and as yet, impermenant, see Egypt. 
Upshot is that there is likely to be much fighting and bloodshed yet to 
come, see Sryia. I'm betting that this will last at least a generation. 
Positive outcomes would be of course result in active democracies across

the region, Negative would mean oppresive leaders/regimes remain in 
place for another 20-25 years.

Outcome: Variable. Mostly likely that the Liberals will hold sway in 
Europe and that the Arab Spring will be an "Indian Summer" before 
repressive forces, secular and religious, slam back down again. Thus 
there will still be huge migration pressures but more liberal policies 
in Europe allowing more people in would see a change in the population 
dynamics and an economic boom for a time providing basic goods (housing 
etc) and services to the new citizens. Providing jobs/income for all 
will be the challenge but the boom would be enough to stave off Turkey. 
The cultural revolution that would go with events would be very 
interesting indeed.

9) Poles hate Russians. I mean HATE Russians.
10) Russia has possibly begun to throw its weight around a bit, see
Georgia.
11) Turkey has had it's own internal problems of late, and has ethnic 
minorities that are afraid to take up arms, though they haven't yet with

any long term commitment, yet.

Outcome: Poland will work to keep NATO together and even make it 
stronger. Currently the Nato is USA, Germany, UK, France plus others but

in the future we are likely to see Poland take a leading role and see 
the US fade more to the background with regards to NATO.

Outcome: Turkey never gets a look in at becoming a major power again. 
Europe remains fairly prosperous and united whilst Turkey is also under 
threat from other Muslim states and it's own interal "Arab Spring".

12) Mexico. Well yeah I can see that one.

Flies in Mr Freidman's future ointment:
1) Israel - They cause wars, they win wars, people love 'em, people hate

'em,and none of us can make them go away. Besides they have nukes and 
who the hell knows what they call "last resort".
2) North Korea - paranoid, racist dwarfs with nukes, who the hell knows 
what they call "last resort".
3) Iran - paranoid, zealous nutters with nukes, who the hell knows what 
they call "last resort".
4) INDIA - soon to be (if not already) the world's most populous nation,

rising tech power (where are all your tech support call centres again?),

rising military power, pheonominal potential for economic growth (likley

next cheap manufacturer after Japan, Korea, China) and dictator of world

cricket (though not absolutely yet). Mr Friedman does not seem to 
consider it at all which means in my mind all Mr Friedmans bets are off,

period. Oh and they could make nukes if they wanted to.

Just some thoughts and hot air.
Tony.