Re: Discussion topic - rewriting (future) history....?

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Jerry,

Not sure if you are right or just working with bad data... :0)

There are fewer LGS than their used to be, but in the same respect their
are
fewer record, CD, and book stores. Do you really think our consumption
of
music and books has declined?

Bricks and mortar stores are expensive in that they require you to
maintain
stocks. With on demand production (be that miniatures or game printing)
and
PDFs being favoured in many cases (searchable!) for games, the reasons
for
an LGS to exist are questionable. Even the boardgame sales have gone
online
significantly.

So, yes, this part of the business has changed. I think you hastily
conclude
this implies something larger about the hobby which I am not sure is
supported.

Counterpoints:
- more miniature manufacturers and variety than I've ever seen before by
a
far cry (but selling over the Internet)
- major games conventions still seem to operate (if they are well
managed.... half the problem in this area is mismanagement)
- more rulesets available on the net for free or POD tor as PDF than
I've
ever seen in times past
- Plenty of blogs on miniatures gaming out there showing people playing
the
games and a wider variety of games than in times past
- more boardgame wargames available now than I've ever seen before (but
these are not your AH or SPI games... these have slick looking rules,
boards, and modern boardgame design)

If I had to presume a change, I would say:
- miniatures gaming now has more variety so their is less concentration
in
any one flavour
- miniatures gaming does involve a lot of middle aged folk now, but many
of
them are bringing their kids up into the mix
- many of those kids are also from the domain of mobile gaming, of VR
worlds, and of amazing computer games, so they may (as a concession to
your
point) find miniatures gaming a bit mundane by that comparison
- bricks and mortar stores for everything that you can get by mail order
are
going away, except for in very major (or very boutique-ish) cases

There probably is less of a flow of teens into the hobby, but things
like
RPGs and D&D have also went from things that most people in the
generation
would say 'what is that?' to things most people have seen or played.
This
may not be entirely extensible to wargames, but if you've played any of
the
recent flavours of D&D which are very miniatures heavy, you're pretty
close
to a skirmish game.

I think there is a lot of gaming going on out there with miniatures. I
can't
tell how much. I don't think the industry is in any danger of
disappearing
given the number of people publishing rules and selling miniatures and
the
number of articles on this stuff on the web. The people are ordering
directly from suppliers and bricks and mortar stores and local gaming
activity associated with them are in decline, but the games have also
gone a
bit more mainstream in exposure and participation.

Every gamer I know with kids is introducing his or her kids to it, so
that
gives me a lot of optimism.

Tom

-- 
Only solitary men know the full joys of friendship. Others have their
family; but to a solitary and an exile, his friends are everything.* 
*--
Willa Cather (1873 - 1947)Solitudinem fecerunt, pacem appelunt
-- Publius Cornelius Tacitus (from the book Agricola, attributed to a
speech
from Calgacus)