Re: Discussion topic - rewriting (future) history....?

On 20/10/2011 2:03 PM, Indy wrote:
> The parenthetical statement I would strongly disagree with. There has
been a
> fairly significant resurgence in miniatures gaming over the past 10
years.

Define resurgence.  (8-)  DTP and the gradual increasing availability of
3D
modelling and printing technologies (whether it's something as
'old-fashioned'
as casting, or as 'high-tech' as your local friendly RepRap or MakerBot)
means
that you have more and more boutique publishers out there.  So, you can
find
things and alternatives that you couldn't find before.

But, an industry as a whole?  I can't speak for international markets
(maybe,
because of the strength of Games Workshop in the UK, the market there is
still
significant in size.)  But, here in Southern Ontario, all the signs
point
to overall contraction.  Even Games Workshop hasn't been able to make
their business model work - various stores in the area have closed, and
the main Canadian warehouse (as far as I can tell) is no longer in the
area.  Most of the local hobby shops won't even carry miniatures
anymore, everything is special order.  The local wargaming convention
(which
always featured a large miniature gaming component) has been cancelled
this year.  I know somebody who's married to a local gaming wholesaler,
and even the gaming wholesaler isn't carrying miniatures anymore.  Right
now, I can think of one local hobby store that carries old-fashioned
lead -- and they limit their selection to Warhammer, Flames of War,
Warmachine, and a gradually shrinking stock of stuff from Spartan Press.
And that's in a metro area that has a half-million people within 20
miles.

Granted, nobody can say for certain without hard numbers, and there
isn't a
NPD for boardgames/miniature games (at least, I've never been able to
find
one).  Maybe the Hamilton area is an exception, and there are a dozen
fine
classic gaming stores in Toronto.  But all the evidence I've seen (both
first hand and from stories, locally and across North America) points
to an industry that's in overall contraction, with fewer and fewer young
people coming up to replace the grognards.  Now, that can be compensated
a
little bit by the demographics -- people as they get older (especially
if their children are now independent) get back some free time to game,
and they have the resources to buy things.  (Which I think is another
reason you see the explosion of boutique publishers - this demographic
is
no longer looking for 3 battalions of the Old Guard, they're looking
for unique things that didn't have a large market, even in the good ol'
days.)	But there's a big difference between this echo, and a genuine
influx of teens and twenty-somethings who are going to make miniature
gaming their life-long hobby.

Now, the 'non-traditional' miniatures market may still remain
large-scale. 
The fact that both WizKids and Hasbro put out major releases this
summer (Star Trek Fleet Captains and Battleship: Galaxies) implies
somebody still thinks there's a substantial market out there for
something.  And maybe something like 'Skylanders' can be a gateway drug
of 
sorts.	But, it honestly looks like that, while individual small
publishers
can succeed, and even thrive, the market as a whole is shrinking, along
with the RPG and wargaming market as a whole.

Of course, once again, you may think all of the above is daft.	In the
interests of full disclosure, I have actually smacked a planet not once,
but twice. (8-)

JGH

-- 
** Jerry Han - jhan@warpfish.com - http://www.warpfish.com/jhan -
TBFTGOGGI **
My heart has been worn, but it ain't broke;It may hiccup and cough black
smoke
It may seem old, but it still runs; My love has laces that won't come
undone
					-- Jason Plumb, "Satellite"