Comments on pop

Population ultimately isn't determinable short of Jon pronouncing his
view
of how things are. I can see the models that some people subscribe to
differ
significantly and assume a far higher level of population growth through
mass emmigration. 

I'll only say this:

1) I looked at the economics in FT of shifting large masses of people
(enough to make a difference of say 1% to Earth's population). The
amount of
ship mass required even with unsanctioned packing densities is still
outrageous. 

2) I base my conclusions on Earth as not overpopulated (necessarily) on
two
things: 1) the fact the biosphere can probably comfortably support a
fair
few more people than we have now, 2) talks with Beth where we briefly
touched on some UN population studies which suggest maybe our population
will actually decrease (though that is pretty hopeful) to the idea that
we'll peak out somewhere (IIRC) around 6-9 billion - which is fine given
the
advances in biological and energy technology we're talking about. The
new
technologies will become ubiquitious and cheap, thus solving a number of
problems in the developing world - even if they are still 100 years
behind
the times, they should have food and water and be able to sustain trade. 

3) Increasing life spans and economic prosperity kill birth rates. If
people
are positing 80 year lifespans (avg) in the colonies, figure that birth
rates will be unlikely to encourage people to have 8 kids. Even in the
colonies, it won't necessarily be economically expedient to have 8
children
in 2183. The Earth itself, if it reaches a stage where people have life,
work, etc and can see a better life by spending time in their lives
doing
something and who don't need to have 8 children to have 2 live and who
live
to an old age will combine to depress Terran birthrates. 

I forsee Earth as resource-damaged (we'll find new resources by
exploration,
we'll find new ways to harvest old resources and use new things, and
we'll
find more advanced recycling) but not depleted, as perhaps population
stable
or at least in slow growth in the 6-9 million range, and I see it as
likely
some areas will in fact be inhospitable. But the technology for cleanup
of
messes will be much much higher (they have radiation eating bacteria
today)
so I suspect the mess of places like Israel won't last forever. The cost
of
shipping people in statistically significant numbers off planet would be
very high. The cost of protecting those shipments from your enemies
would be
back breaking. And only the ESU and a few others could do it "against
the
will" of the settlers.

Further, based on the canon statements about the length of time it took
to
populate Albion to the level of England (which is a drop in the on-Earth
NAC
bucket... the three Americas have huge populations...) surely suggest
something about the rate at which people from developing people are
rushing
to the colonies (ie not terribly fast) and even that growth was achieved
with significant effort.
Assuming that was a significant effort, you have a limited amount to
expend
on other colonies, so their growth is thereby limited. Now, sure
colonization could have increased. But would it have increased to give
the
numbers some have suggested? YMMV. I don't think so. And as for Chris'
comment - I don't forsee people having 8 kids in an environment where
they
live to 80 and where mortality does not claim six of those kids. Maybe
even
4, but unlikley 8. And as an average? You must be using cloning vats.
<which
is, I concede, a possibility not accounted for>

My suggestion is Earth's population is 6-9 Billion (maybe 10-11 if we
want
to assume some crowding). I'd suggest off-Earth population all together
totals no more than 25% of the on-Earth figure. 

Beth, you must have something to say and some work to procrastinate.... 

------------------------------------------
Thomas R. S. Barclay
Voice: (613) 722-3232 ext 349
e-mail: tomb@bitheads.com

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