Re: [FH] Great Powers

G'day,

>	      Pop	       GDP	   ActMen     MilBud
>NAC	  809.6        $8238.1	    4193     $323993
>ESU	 2141.6      $1734.9	  8032	      114858
>FSE	 165.2	       $1174.5	    1289	  40225
>NSL	 123.1	       $1139	     1076	   35756
>IF	    370.7	   $493 	  4018		56570
>PAU	 468.1	       $239.9	      890.2	     7019
>IC	    527.2	  $235		 2283	       10015
>OU	    23.7	 $219.4 	   90		  5330
>
>Population in millions, GDP in billions, available military manpower
>in thousands, military budget in millions.

Are these based only for on Earth or total populations?
Just off the top of my head I would've said the NAC is a bit low (way
low
actually) given the amount of area it is supposed to contain. As for the
ESU I'd say they may be about right (if we're talking on Earth), given
China's impending reproductive population slump.
And this may sound ethnocentric to the extreme, but the OU is too low as
well. I know we've got falling growth now and that the Pacific Islands
aren't exactly reproduction paradise, but given the fact PNG and NZ have
about 4 million each and the fact everyone keeps saying that we get at
least a couple of good planets spaceside I think you were overly
conservative here.

What assumptions did you use to come up with the up with the numbers by
the
way?

>NAC includes UK, Japan,  plus all of North & South America except the
>Caribbean Islands, Texas and California (FCT would have a population
>40 and GDP 212--I subtracted that from the NAC numbers).

Why include Japan in the NAC, isn't if fairly widely accepted now that
they're an independent entity?

>ESU includes Russia (except my guesstimate of RH share), China, India 
>Czechoslovakia Poland N Korea Sri Lanka Nepal Mongolia Mauritius 
>Maldives Bhutan

Mauritius is much more likely to go PAU in my opinion.

>FSE includes France Italy Spain Portugal Luxembourg Malta

I'd add Greece at least to that, maybe some of the other Balkan states.

>IF includes Saudi Iran Algeria Pakistan UAE Iraq Egypt Kuwait Libya
>Syria Morocco Oman Qatar Tunisia Sudan Jordan	Bahrain Lebanon N Yemen
>Afghanistan S Yemen

No wonder you ended up with such a large population... ;)

>PAU covers all Africa except what IF has

Guess that includes Madagascar? Have you included the (immense)
likelihood
of mammoth population slumps for the Africian nations during the next
century in your estimates?

>Main neutrals that I didn't know where to put are S Korea Taiwan
>Belgium Turkey Greece Ireland

I guess you'll get alot of opinions coming in on these, but just off the
bat (without checking any source info or anything) I'd chuck Sth Korea
and
Taiwan in with the ESU (they took over everything else around them so
why
not?).

Belgium I'd be inclined to stick in the FSE or NSL (though I'm sure an
irrate Belgian is about to come head hunting me for that one)

Turkey, after recent events (and because I'm feeling perverse) would
undoubtedly be in the FSE ;P
More likely in the IF I guess (?? Then again maybe I missing something)

Greece - like I said likely to go FSE I reckon

Ireland - independent as usual thankyou!! ;)

>Obviously this doesn't account for wars and such--I imagine the
>Pacification of America, followed by the Wars of the Americas, would
>have reduced the NAC's economy compared to the rest of the world, for
>example.

Justified assumption, though I reckon there would have been a much
larger
and more general reverberating effect (i.e. global impact of wars) and
it
is more than likely to have been overcome since stellar exploration
began
(a week can be a very long time in the financial markets I'm told).

Just a couple of initial thoughts. I'd be keen to see how you came up
with
the numbers.

Thanks

Beth

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Elizabeth Fulton
c/o CSIRO Division of Marine Research
GPO Box 1538
HOBART 
TASMANIA 7001
AUSTRALIA
Phone (03) 6232 5018 International +61 3 6232 5018
Fax 03 6232 5053 International +61 3 6232 5053

email: beth.fulton@marine.csiro.au