Re: [FT] OFFICIAL RULING REQUEST (was Re: Couple of questions)

On Thu, 4 Feb 1999, Oerjan Ohlson wrote:

> -MWS- wrote in reply to Laserlight:
[snip]
> This is wrong. I'm not sure where you went wrong, but if you ignore
the
> PDS re-rolls in your matrix below you'll find that on average 103/36 =
> 2.861 missiles manage to lock on and get past the single PDS;
2.861*3.5 =
> 10.014. I'd find it very strange if the PDS re-rolls *increase* the
> damage :-/
> 
> I got the average SM salvo damage vs 1 PDS to 9.75, which is a 3.2%
> increase from the "intuitively expected" value.

The actual value for SM against 1 PDS is 2.644 dice for 9.255 points
average
(got the signs correct this time :)  I'll try and work up the rest of
the
figures sometime this week.

Formula - corrected after brain fart was removed <g> is:

Average Dice = ( 3/6 + 8/6 + (14/6 - (3/6 * 1/6) + (20/6 - (8/6 * 1/6))
		 + (26/6 - ((14/6 * 1/6) + (3/6 * 1/6 * 1/6))
		 + (32/6 - ((20/6 * 1/6) + (8/6 * 1/6 * 1/6)) ) / 6
	     = 2.644

Average Damage = 2.644 * 3.5 = 9.255

===================================================================
Mark "Hauptmann" Shurtleff
  email: hauptman@sfcmd.com -or- hauptman@concentric.net
  visit the Gear Locker at http://www.sfcmd.com/HeavyGear/

 Finagle's Law:
   The perversity of the Universe tends towards the maximum.
===================================================================