Re: [DSII] Point defence...

John M. Atkinson wrote:
>Andrew wrote:
>>Oerjan Ohlson <oerjan.ohlson@telia.com> wrote:
>>>Found this today:
>>>www.trw.com/seg/sats/THEL.html
>>Do you read this:
>>    "P(k) near 1 at 5 kms"
>>Probability of kill "near 1 at 5 Km"?
>>    PDS ranges of 5KM? Ack! Nearly automatic kill? Aargh!
>Uh-huh.  Sure.  If the tank is stationary with the THEL pointed in the
>right direction, and one single round with no counter-measures or
>stealthing (both of which will become as common as dirt if this thing
>starts impacting the battlefield in a real way) under firing-range
>conditions.
    Actually the intended target isn't tanks. It's missiles, smart
rounds,
cruise missiles and such like, which typically don't have counter
measures
and have only limited stealth and certainly don't have visual stealth.

>Like I said, I'll believe a shyster or a used car salesman before I
>believe a defense contractor's advertisements for a probability of
kill.
    I think that the american military are a little bit smarter than
that
now. Particularly after the Vietnam era debacle over the introduction of
the
M16, probably one of the worst design changes the american military ever
made. Now they are smart consumers who specify their requirements and
expect
their suppliers to provide proof.
    So I think that high probability of kill, though not specified
exactly,
is probably high. "P(k) near 1 at 5 kms" means to me, at least 0.76 to
.95
at most probability of a kill of a non-evading missile, smart artillery
shell, cruise missile and recon drones. So in the worse case, 3 out of 4
missiles, drones and shells will be shot down with one shot.

Andrew Martin
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