Re: Our choice of factions and models for games

textfilter: chose text/plain from a multipart/alternative

I look at us getting out beyond the Earth using the following
considerations:

- We were all supposed to be living on the Moon and Mars by 2000 (or
sooner) according to the 1950s
- The 1960s saw advances in genetics convincing us we'd have cured lots
of
diseases by the 1980s or 1990s and that mapping the human genome would
be
the key and results thereafter would flow like a river in short order
- We went to the moon in the 1960s. We haven't been able to get back in
the
last 35+ years.
- We figured we'd have flying cars. They are nearing the point where
they
might happen now, but that's decades after.
- We thought we'd have nuclear cars and we only ever had one or two. Now
we
probably never will.

The list goes on.

I think when some discoveries are made, they seem so magnificent, they
have
allowed us to believe anything is possible. Short time horizons seem to
get
assigned because they fall within one human lifespan (my theory) and
nobody
likes to contemplate progress that will only happen decades or centuries
after their own death.

If I assume a hyper or jump drive is possible and could be invented
sometime in the next few hundred years, I would still imagine:

- It'll take mankind until at least 2050 to have any meaningful long
term
habitation (even a dinky base) on mars or the moon (moon maybe
2030-2040).
- Filling out meaningful longer term colonies in earth orbit, orbiting
the
moon, or orbiting mars will take another 50 years. They might be better
in
that controling gravity is more feasible there. (spin habs)
- Developing engines that will move us around the system in any sort of
human-useful time frames might be done 50-70 years from now.
- So, let's assume by 100 years from now, we can have small colonies
throughout our system. But I suspect there will be a balkanization of
space. And these colonies will still have necessary dependencies back to
Earth for spares, some nutrients or compunds, etc.
- 200 years from now, the system may be more robustly colonized. There
will
have been some problems and disasters along the way.

So if we posit some form of 'hyper drive' or 'jump drive' appears, one
would expect somewhere in the 100 - 150 years from now range would be
the
earliest time we'd be able to contemplate much use of it. Exploration of
nearby stars may proceed at a reasonable rate, but colonization (when we
have viable in-system colonies) would require major economic or
political
(or both) motivations.

So far, I haven't seen nearby expoplanets that justify this sort of
logistical effort. Much like how Canada talks about diversifying trade,
but
the reality is we are connected to the US by road and rail which is
still a
huge economic bonus, I don't see more than token colonies on most of
these
locations.

The first time we'd get a big push to move a sizable population off
world
in somewhere in the 150-200 year time frame, maybe as a result of global
overpopulation even considering the shoving of population into the Sol
system's other areas. If we found a great expoplanet or two, maybe we'd
do
some colonizing.

So any timeline that sets up major extra-Solar colonies before about
2120-2140 is too fast by my thinking. And to get a sizable number of
them
on good planets with any real population? Maybe 2300, 2400, 2500?

The other thing that occurs to me, if great planets are not easily
available, is that populations may scatter into orbital habs over
marginally habitable places that can supply some resources. Resource
limits
would control the local hab populations. (This is a bit of the High
Colonies setting... once Earth was a mess....)

Jon's timeline is a bit quick on the low end. I think you'd need to
shove
another 50-100 years into that end of things to make it seem doable to
me.

Of course, that assumes no global catastrophe from war or a global
runaway
greenhouse effect or massive superbug epidemics or some other similar
sort
of apocalyptic occurence. That could crimp the timeline... sizably!

T.