Re: More future history questions - UK

On 19/01/2012 6:52 AM, John Tailby wrote:
> I am sure that Australia and NZ would like the chance to supply UK
without EU import duties and subsidies clipping their ticket. Other
commonwealth countries would likely enjoy the opportunity to supply UK
again, it might not be at the discounted prices of old but would be good
for both sides. Especially the UK if the alternative is expensive EU
products. it could also develop some markets for UK goods
>
This requires that the UK have an industrial base large enough to be an 
attractive market for NZ and Aus resources. China is a huge market, 
India will be a huge market and the UK will be a nice little side 
earner. Scale equals money and the UK just doesn't have the scale, and 
is very unlikely too, to be a real alternative to markets in India and 
China.

Also bear in mind that much of the recent development in Aus has been 
funded, at l;east in part, by the Chinese. This development has not just

been in mining but also agriculture, an investment that is rapidly 
growing in size. As I think someone has said before, China is starting 
to "own" a lot of resources down here and they are most unliklely to 
sell to an alternative market. China is not truly a free market economy.

Many big corporations are state owned, in part or in total, and thus 
will place other considerations ahead of profit at times. In short if 
China needs iron ore, China will get iron ore, even if prices in London 
might be better.

The UK is a service economy not a goods economy. That is the result of 
80+ years of economic develoment and political change. To reverse that 
will probably take just as long but will need a firm comitment from 
Government and business, a condusive world environment, devaluing the 
pound (which the British have always been very reluctant to so), massive

cuts in wages to be competitive and massive social changes that will go 
with that which I just can't see happening in such an old democracy.

Tony. (whose watching the AUD rise against everything)