re: More future history questions

textfilter: chose text/plain from a multipart/alternative

Hmmm. Some interesting ideas in here, but I think a fair range of
'NAC/ESU'
like reaches....

--------------

I won't bother going through all the economic ups and downs he predicts,
suffice it to say that by 2035-2040 US is still the worlds major
superpower, its paying migrants to come to the country to pad out a
contracting workforce

----------

[Tom] I have a doubt the US will ever do that. I foree it going heavily
robotic instead. The latent xenophobia (mostly economically driven) in
the
US seems likely to prevent them paying anyone to come to the US. And
with
Eastern Europe, Russia, India, and some other regions of the world
beating
the tar out of them today in contracting and out-sourcing, I'm not
seeing
much chance those places will cease to dominate until their economies
match
or beat the US economy in terms of standard of living.

Cost advantages will still continue to predominate and I do not see
global
transnational CEOs (rich folk) doing anything other than locating for
cost
advantage.

Most work that is 'good enough' can be done elsewhere and our cost per
man-hour is not going to get cheaper unless there is a massive housing
crash, a massive wage crash, a breaking of a large number of varied
labour
unions, and a vast reduction in expectations from the West.

The only reason we'll see more local manufacturing is a peak-oil
scenario
making global trade more problematic, but that will impact everyone's
standards of living and several countries economic models (the West and
China most notably, but it also really guts Japan whose costs to import
energy will not be avoidable).

Oh, and if there was a country to be screwed by the population curve, it
is
Japan. Japan has some very serious old age vs. young folk issues that
won't
be handwaved away entirely by robotics without also thoroughly gutting
the
prospects for 80% of the young people. It can be solved by allowing
immigration, but Japan has land-space issues and cost issues that make
that
immigration expensive (to live, you need to have some serious income,
which
kind of negates the cheap labour aspect).

China too might be screwed by its own tampering with the population
curve.
That's having a toll on crime, mental health, and other societal
aspects.
China is big enough to take the hit, but I suspect it'll slow them down
a
lot. They are already talking about this meaning their entire economy
has
to transform from being 'the factory of the world' (which requires lots
of
young, cheap, hardworking labour) into something else. They don't seem
clear yet on what this is but I suspect higher education and
modernization
will play a role, if they succeed.

--------------

 that even robotics can't compensate for and the jihadist movements are
basically old history. oh and an attempt by Russia to regain past glory
failed and they're a worse basket case than ever.

---------------

[Tom] Any Russian attempt to regain old glory is less likely than the
attempt of the oligarchs/kleptocrats to attempt to maintain their own
standard of living and wealth. They retain the trappings of old Russia,
but
the power now is in the hands of a rich elite (intertwined with
organized
crime and the state). That elite isn't so much ideological (despite the
rattling of the occasional sabre) as it is about money. Unless a strong
case can be made in their attempt for a big cash return, they'd rather
just
use their existing energy and political clout and domestic power to stay
rich and to arm-twist their neighbours.

---------------

So Russia's collapse leaves some wiggle room on its borders. He writes
off
China as not having enough cohesion and India as hemmed in by geography
and
instead proposes

--------------
[Tom] Hmmm. That's a fascinating way to write up 40% of the World's
population. Methinks that's too convenient by half!
--------------

1) Japan gets power by first economically allying with productive
coastal
regions of China and them militarily going after the Pacific rim areas
of
Russia. He goes through how they build up their military etc to prepare,
but basically the crux is 500 mile radius from Japan gets you from
Shanghai
to Vladivostok so they don't need a super huge military to pull it off.

---------------
[Tom] I can see economic ties, I can't see the overall Chinese identify
as
allowing them to support them as a vassal of Japan. They are a pragmatic
folk in most cases, so it could happen. And military clashes with Russia
could occur one supposes.

What of Mongolia? What of the other regions along the Russian/Chinese
interior borders that don't really like either of them?
---------------

2) Turkey as a regional economic power pushes up into the Caucasus as
Russia collapse and acts as the peaceful hand in the fragmenting Arab
nations/Muslim world and even moves into the Muslim areas of the Balkans
(US and Arab world initially supports them as less objectionable, for
different reasons, than Iran or Israel and Pakistan isn't healthy enough
to
step up)

------------------
[Tom] The assumption here is that the Arabs can't get themselves
together
enough to be stable and successful without Turkish intervetion? I think
(for example) Libya, in the mess that it is in, has more potential for
being a functional state than Pakistan. This also ignores the
possibility
of a large scale Muslim coalition of states arising. They'll still be
sitting on a lot of oil.

And what does Nuclear Israel do about the Turkey expanding into the Arab
world? And what does the large Persian nation of Iran do? Is it still
hobbled by US actions? If not, it too has a vast amount of human
potential.
And has a large body of reasonably culturally similar people within its
borders.

I think here we write off the Middle East a bit too easily.
------------------

3) NATO falls apart but Poland heads up a coalition of dynamic
Slavic/eastern European and Baltic states that soak up ex-Russia's
eastern
boundary (i.e. Ukraine, Belarus etc), again with US support (western
Europe
is in financial decline due to aging populations so don't play a big
part
apparently)

------------
[Tom] I could see Poland soaking up former East Bloc states; The Poles
are
a dynamic people when operating under a system that alows that.
------------

4) 2030s-2040s Japan and Turkey's space presence buidls up, though is
never
as large as the US's (many nations also have commercial space traffic at
this point)

------------
[Tom] I see Japan moving ahead on this front if their demographics don't
sink the $ needed for this. Turkey... I'm more skeptical. The Turkish
government has always seemed (historically) more focused on matters on
terra firma. What has happened to the Kurds? Would they not resist any
Turkish power expansion like the devil? Are they still fighting a
guerilla
conflict in and outside of Turkey? Or has an expanded Turkey crushed the
PKK? And have they invaded the Kurish section of Iraq?
------------

5) Polish Bloc and Turkey will end up at loggerheads (US ends up more
behind the Poles)

6) US puts many of its military eggs in space based command and control
centres which coordinate the strike capabilities of hypersonic aircraft
that can reach most of the world's surface (form US bases) in less than
an
hour or so

-----------
[Tom] This fits with a leaner, meaner, more responsive DoD. Does this
assume they demobilize their surface fleets and ground force projection
capabilities? I can't quite see that unless the economy is a true basket
case. Without the ability to put troops on the ground anywhere, you
aren't
the global superpower. That requires a navy for the heavy sealift
involved.

I do forsee the investment in hypersonic strike aircraft but also a
large
investment in cyberwarfare (which does not require so much physical
presence) and in remote strike platforms (why risk pilots? also should
outperform human pilots and have smaller silhouettes).
-----------

7) Americans assume no one is as good as them at tech, thinking sneaky
etc
and also that all threats will come from Earth (i.e. missiles fired at
satellites or satellites vs satellites using the kinetics that was
spoken
of on the sf-consim list the other day)
-----------
[Tom] A somewhat reasonable supposition, given our lack of ability to
defend vs. attacks from space anyway. However, I do thikn that
monitoring
near earth objects will have to become a higher priority for strictly
practical reasons with more and more orbital space traffic and offworld
traffic to the moon/etc. arising. I can't see us not having a
better-than-today level of monitoring.
-----------

8) US doesn't like growing military (especially naval) power of Turkey
and
Japan, who in turn feel that US is trying to crush them so everyone gets
"tense"

----------
[Tom] I notice this history doesn't much mention: Africa, the Middle
East
(except the parts under Turkey), and South America. It conciously writes
off Europe, which may be somewhat valid given the financial and
demographic
mess they constitute.
----------

9) No one takes nukes seriously as an option (except as a last resort)
as
they don't want the PR disaster of civilian casualties

----------
[Tom] I have two subpoints to make: Israel, in your scenario, would
probably have to consider their use at some point unless Turkey managed
to
change some of the attitudes. Either that or Israel is the most scared,
tense place on the globe. Secondly, I think that Iran will have nukes
and
not want to be ignored. Also you might want to consider that orbital use
or
space use may be within the realms of feasible as they lack the PR
aspects
(moreso space than orbital)
----------

10) Many nations build industrial/research colonies on the moon by 2040s

----------
[Tom] Still waiting on someone to convince me this makes sense. It makes
sense to me based on pushing humanity to the stars and to Mars on the
way
there. It makes little sense for industrial purposes as far as I can
tell.
And nobody has ever come up with a solution to the major long term
habitability issues for the Moon or Mars that I have seen, the foremost
being the effects of reduced gravity on the human immune system as well
as
other subsystems in the body. If we need silica, there are closer places
than the moon. Research, maybe. Industrial? Don't see it.
----------

11) In 2050 Turkey has a "crisis" with Poland over troops in the
Balkans, a
ruse to keep the US attention there (President gets the PMs together
etc,
seems to talk them down, great kudos etc everyone goes home for the
holidays happy). Japan does its bulk standard quarterly military drills
so
no one really pays attention. The Japanese then make a "secret" first
strike by launching rocks (with rocket motors attached) from secret part
of
their moon base, initially on "random" orbits so just look like steroids
so
automated systems of US "Battlestars" ignore them and even Space tech
Joe
Bloggs goes "Hmmm meteors are a bit higher than normal but none headed
for
us so ok". On 3rd day from moon launch of these rocks they go into
terminal
missile burn that redirects them at the 3 US Battlestars. This is timed
for
late in the afternoon of Thanksgiving so its hard to get the Joint
Chiefs/important people together. Battelstars put up valiant self
defensive
effort but overwhelmed by more rocks. US is blind. Japanese have also
got
their hypersonics airborne and hit US airfields/land command and
control.
In the final hour Japan finally tells Turkey the plan... who activate
pre-made battle plans and smash Polish facilities.

--------------------
[Tom] US already has the best rock detection capability in Space
Command,
does it not? I expect this to improve, not get worse.

And you can bet if Japan and Turkey have bases on the moon, the US
probably
would too. And surveillance satellites would likely be orbiting the moon
and keeping an eye on each colony's constructions. Space around the moon
would probably need to be swept for orbital debris and for traffic
control
much like the space around Earth would have to be. Rock launching seems
unlikely to me from the moon without being detected.

I also find it unlikely that the US military does not have contingency
plans for just about any scenario. The JCS are important, but NORAD or
Space Command generals would undoubtedly need the ability to react more
quickly than you can assemble the JCS (assuming you can't just hook them
in
via virtual presence) in a world with hypersonic strike aircraft and
cyberwarfare. I do not see the US being unable to muster a response just
because it is a national holiday.

Yes, perhaps the response would be limited in scope and defensive, but
much
like how things operated in the Cold War with SAC, they'd simply put all
their birds in the air, even if final targeting was not ready. They
wouldn't leave them on the ground to be hit at the bases.

BTW, this case is another reason you'd still have a nuclear submarine
strike capability - even if it was only a dozen subs - it offers another
system that the enemy can't knock out easily. This is another reason for
the USN.

Many of my objections to this scenario go away if the Americans are no
longer a global superpower due to serious economic collapse. If they
can't
pay for space command, if they can't pay for the USN, if the price of
the
workers drops dramatically due to the crash of financial, housing,
equity,
and stock markets, etc. then maybe some of these lapses make sense. But
then they aren't a hyperpower or superpower and probably their ability
to
interfere with much beyond their continent is limited.

-------------------

12) US did get some of their own forces airborne, and do some damage to
Japan, but not sheet loads.

---------------------
[Tom] You can hit the US military, destroy all of their space based
direction centers, and nobody gets nuked? Not buying that. Japan is a
small
place. 10 or 15 decent sized nuclear strikes would utterly crush any
civilian economy. Look at what one partial meltdown has done to a whole
segment of their very limited physical space. Multiple multi-megaton
strikes would pretty much write them off. They lack, in a geographic
sense,
strategic depth.
--------------------

13) The Japanese-Turkish coalition isn't after capitulation just
breathing
space so now push for political settlement - an agreement to all stay
out
of each other's way/areas of influence.

-------------------
[Tom] An incredibly unwise policy I suspect.
-------------------

14) US actually freaked out by the attacks and begins ratcheting its
responses - first gets US geekforce to upload new control programs for
remaining "old" satellites which go and kill Japanese/Turkish
satellites;
mutual raiding and destruction of moon base capabiilities by the secret
military guys inserted in each research team; the US industrial complex
rolls into action and turns out new gen aircraft (in about 2 years) and
uses mothballed secret bases to house them (they had purposefully built
these and kept the secret since 2030s or so just in case)

-----------------
[Tom] If the US can kill most military satellites, odds are they will
also
kill civilian ones. This will attrit Japanese and Turkish military
capability and economic. The Turks and Japanese would probably
reciprocate.
Net effect is bad for everyone.
----------------

15) Meanwhile Turkey kicks Polish butt, using hypersonic aircraft as
artillery and old fashioned land based invasion. US uses its remaining
airforce to help the Poles out and push the Turks back (buying time for
a
US rebuild) - Turks also don't want to be too stretched as have to keep
Egypt etc under control.

--------------
[Tom] I have my doubts the Turkish military could take on the Poles
unless
they'd got a lot of technology transfer (and a sizable culutral shift
within the military). One presumes the US provided tech transfers to the
Poles. I suspect if Turkey has its hand all over the ME trying to
control
various states that are currently political basket cases (Egypt isn't
the
only one), this sort of even would be perfect for revolts to happen,
either
populist or triggered by US and Israeli influence. (And, for that
matter,
possibly Russian, Indian or Chinese influence).

I had a friend suggest the recent assassination of an Iranian nuclear
scientist via motorcycle delivered car bomb could have been a Chinese
action. They have as much desire to keep Iran in check as anyone and
they
know it would get blamed on the US or Israel. This principle applies in
cases like this where other powers can interfere even if their own
interests are not directly involved in the conflict and more safely so
when
there is a more obvious enemy to blame the action upon.
-------------

16) 2051-2052 Germans agree to coalition with Turkey to defeat the Poles
(they get northeast europe in return if successful) and drag in the
French
too.

------------
[Tom] So in the next 40 years, the Germans will have undone the last 40
years of becoming fairly strongly anti-military and reasonable and the
French will want to win a bunch of countries they may have to rule
against
the will of those countries? That's not France's style anymore. And I
forsee Germany and France recalling they don't like paying for everyone
else in their power blocs since that's what will eventually sink the
Eurozone.
-----------

 Britain is appalled and secretly hands its intel, airforce resources
and
airbases to the US. Turks and Germans pusg througheastern Europe again
using power armoured troops (with robot minions so don't need huge
numbers
of human bodies). Initially the electrical grid is defended as both
sides
want ti to feed their PA. The US then reveals its last trick, which is
space based solar power beamed down to troops via microwave (i.e. to on
ground recievers) and so the Polish scorch earth the electrical grid and
Turkish advance grinds to a halt. On top of which Congressional budget
blocks will mean that a 4th battlestar was built way back when but never
launched and now it is... Japan and Turkish advances reversed (again no
requirement for unconditional surrender, though US gets space to
itself).

-----------
[Tom] Why would Japan, having engaged the US in orbit and having blown
out
most of its capability there, not be continously putting up surveillance
satellites with some limited kinetic kill capabilities? All they have to
do
is slightly disrupt any launch in progress and it will go awry (based on
our prior record of space efforts...). A handful of ball-bearing sized
debris hitting the battlestar's launch platform, a laser, a railgun
shot, a
small in-atmo nuclear detonation (say 50kt), a directed EMP weapon....
etc.

I think once you've lost control of space but that threats can still be
put
into LEO or high atmo that can prevent easy, unopposed launches, that
nothing is going into space until that situation is resolved.

If Japanese defense planners didn't plan for this sort of contingency,
they
should all be fired.

-----------

17) Poland will prosper, eventually reforming something vaguely like
NATO
and economically sucking up beleaguered western Europe. US feels
threatened
and now stats to back Turkey - Poles feel betrayed.

18) Military funded space based electrical power will see that form of
energy take off as most economic as commercial industry doesn't have to
pay
for the infrastructure (as was the case for the interstate and early
internet/www) and you get another US boom

--------------
[Tom] This history calls out for someone to illustrate what happens when
an
equipment malfunction, sabotage, or cyberwarfare redirects what is
essentially a large microwave projector at a city.....

If Japan still has high-atmo or LEO assets, they can probably put up
some
sort of power the same way. I can't see it being just a US boom. And
what
about all the 'neutral' countries who will want to put up stuff and be
left
alone by both sides? Russia, China, India, South American and African
countries, etc.
--------------

19) Meanwhile by 2060s-2080s Mexico has pulled itself together and is
now
the Latin economy of note, moreover through now legal migration the
Mexican
cession areas of the US are largely Latino populated (they are almost a
majority there now in 2000 so this isn't too far fetched)

--------------
[Tom] No signs of this now. If anything, I'd say it is headed the other
way
(re: Mexico pulling itself together). The economics of the drug trade
augur
against any of this changing anytime soon. 2080 is a long way off, but I
think this one is totally pulled out of the ether as I don't see any
indicators today of this happening.

US having big Latino population? That's coming no doubt. But many will
be
citizens. Those born in the US will be and that will be the majority
even
if the parents were illegals.
--------------

20) Robotics and cheap energy means the labour force is finally not
needed
for real and skill displacement can't soak them all up (population
problems
compounded by genetic advances in health care areas).

--------------
[Tom] And here rich elites prosper and the majority of the world's
population gets the shaft. We see what the 1%/99% dichotomy really will
look like here. This one I see coming. One might argue, people in my
field
are bringing this to fruition to our own detriment.
--------------

 End result US decides to go back to limiting migration and sending home
anyone on a temporary visa regardless of residence time. Latinos (some
of
whom have now been in the US for decades) and Mexico (who doesn't want
waves of unemployed) get upset. Political tensions in Mexico City and
amongst Latino representatives in Washington, small scale radicalisation
in
the "borderlands" sees some strikes on federal facilities. President
tries
to federalise the national guard along the Mexican border to protect
federal installations. The Latino governors tell him to go jump (and
largely Latino national guard in those areas support the governors).
Radical strikes continue so Congress agrees to allow US army in down
there,
Mexican army is moved to the border in response. Mexican and US
Presidents
meet to parly with the Mexican President effectively speaking for the
Latinos in the Mexican cession areas as well as Mexico itself.

-----------
[Tom] I assume you are including Arizona, New Mexico, and California in
that assessment? Texas should be too, but I don't know if it will follow
the same trajectory.
-----------

21) Change to Mexican constitution allows for diaspora to vote.

22) Mexico ramps up military forces

------------
[Tom] Given they are a basket case today - almost a failed state with
little sign they are going in any good direction and with current
realities
of corruption and illegal drug economics, given their military is
ineffective in comparison with a military like the USA, do you forsee 70
years as enough for them to mount any sort of viable challenge to the
US?
If the US has been going 'leaner and meaner' with its global footprint,
you
can bet US domestic politics will have once again come to the forefront.
I
can't see the US not having some plans in place and forces to deal with
this sort of scenario (they have plans TODAY). Unless, of course, they
are
no longer an economic superpower... and can't afford to.
------------

23) US army could probably take out the Mexican army (ok likely for sure
could) but it couldn't pacify the borderlands... the world holds its
breath
to see whether the borders are formally redrawn.

------------
[Tom] If the Mexican Army started a fight, Mexico would revert to being
a
failed ruin of a state as the US could certainly project hypersonic
strikes
into many of its key industrial and military complexes. Unless Mexico is
magically a lot more stable, educated, urban, literate, etc. than today
(not just a little bit), then this might well leave Mexico shattered.
I'm
not really seeing the percentage for the Mexican Army to go this way or
for
the Mexican government to support it, even with the diaspora vote.

Now, if you argue there is some sort of escalation, some incidents, then
a
scuffle breaks out... maybe. But then it would be short, contained, and
still leave Mexico the worse off, rather than a larger general war. It
could leave a lot of bad feelings in Mexico and the territories.

But what do all the non-Latino US citizens in these Latino-dominated
territories do? I am fairly certain many of them are heavily armed, so
the
problem is not just the US having restive Latino population within some
states, but also restive non-Latino populations. We're talking Missouri
in
the Civil War years... depopulated due to back and forth raids and
reprisals by militias. We're talking about breaks even within families.
We're talking about at least a 3 or 4 state internal civil war
potentially.

Can the US government keep such a conflict contained? What sort of
draconian measures are they willing to take for their non-Latino
citizens?
What are those citizens willing to do to defend their homes and their
American identity?

Or do they all just pack up and flee, en masse, to non-Latino states,
much
like Quebec anglophones did during our secession crises? I'd say US
mentality is more towards fight than flee, but if the odds are very bad
population wise in some areas, you could see smart people leaving.
-------------

Like I said interesting, but how plausible is it?

------------
[Tom] As plausible as the IF, NAC, and ESU.

Anytime you write near term history, you can probably do the next 20
years
from current trends. Beyond that, you're making it up. Once you get 40+
years out, all bets are off. And you'll be wrong from the minute you set
pen to paper.

It's an interesting exercise. In the same case, I'd have said China
instead
of Japan - bigger economy, lots of technological know how, a reasonable
amount of cultural uniformity and identity, a vast economy of trade,
lots
of experience with a big military, with espionage, a long view to
problems,
reasonably good at diplomacy, and with experience in space. I'd have
left
Japan as a lonely US ally in a hostile neighborhood (the Israel of the
Pacific Rim).
------------

Beth

-- 
Only solitary men know the full joys of friendship. Others have their
family; but to a solitary and an exile, his friends are everything.* 
*--
Willa Cather (1873 - 1947)Solitudinem fecerunt, pacem appelunt
-- Publius Cornelius Tacitus (from the book Agricola, attributed to a
speech from Calgacus)