Re: More future history questions

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On Sun, Jan 15, 2012 at 3:41 AM, Roger Burton West
<roger@firedrake.org>wrote:

> [...]
> On Sun, Jan 15, 2012 at 03:04:56PM +1100, Beth.Fulton@csiro.au wrote:
> >The Japanese then make a "secret" first strike by launching rocks
(with
> >rocket motors attached) from secret part of their moon base,
initially
> >on "random" orbits so just look like steroids so automated systems of
> >US "Battlestars" ignore them and even Space tech Joe Bloggs goes
"Hmmm
> >meteors are a bit higher than normal but none headed for us so ok".
>
> Um.
>
> Have to say I have a bit of a problem with that.
>

Concur

>
> The number of rocks big enough to be useful for something like this
that
> get closer than the moon is pretty low. And even if there were others
> for camouflage, and even if the manoeuvres were done on farside so
that
> nobody could see the drive flares, a bunch of rocks suddenly appear
from
> behind the moon when nobody saw them before? Panic time.
>
> (In practice, either earthbound or farside astronomers _will_ see the
> drive flares of initial deployment.)
>

We have the technology now to find and track small asteroids/large
meteoroids (heck, we're detecting /*planets*/ around other star systems,
by
the 2020s or 2030s we should be well into imaging them*). There is a
group
of astronomers who are dedicated to locating and tracking NEAs (Near
Earth
Asteroids). I would put forth that with a space presence, our techniques
and technology will be much better and we'd be able to locate/track
objects
from pretty far out, so a bunch of rocks (how large are these things
supposed to be?) suddenly appearing (esp without any 'reason' - such as
a
cometary debris train (and most of that would be dust-sized stuff)) is
going to be mighty suspicious.

* - we damn well better be, anyway  :-D

Mk