Re: [GZG] Invading Mars (was FTverse colinies)

My take on this:

1) James, your theory pre-supposes not only that they know a lot more
about humanity than I think they really do, but also understand our
psychology better. I know they have been using those research ships to
learn about human physiology, but psychology would be much harder (I'm
sure all their instincts would push them to Kravakapomorphize us). Do
the Kra'vak use covert operations like that at all?  They may be
WINNING, but that has nothing to do with having the capabilities you
describe.

2) I pretty much agree with John's assessment of the sheer size of
planets and their impacts. Though one quibble: in my conception of the
Tuffleyverse, there is no space elevator.

3) Alan's points about the value of mars as a target are very good,
though again a quibble: FTL drives are less accurate as you approach a
star. Once you get close enough, they stop working altogether. FTL as
I understand it requires that you be at least further out than the
Kuiper Belt (beyond Neptune). So basically using FTL to bypass picket
forces isn't going to work. HOWEVER, due to the relative velocities of
constant-acceleration ships, interceptions are still unlikely. You
have to park your defenders on the ground they'll defend.

OK so here's my take:

First, we start from Earth, figure out the forces we need, and work
backwards to figure out what we need to get there. This is rough
because we have to decide what the overall Kra'vak strategic objective
is: conquest, neutralization, extermination? It could be any of those.
The Earth-Minbari war in B5 on one hand sounds really contrived and
scripted. On the other, it's a good model for the fact that while
there will be common principles in the evolution of both species, that
we really are fundamentally different and insane-seeming surprises can
happen. Larry Niven's Footfall is a good example of that in action.

An annihilation force would be low on ground troops and high on mobile
industrial gear: bio-factories to make bio/chem weapons, asteroid
mining to prepare a Dinosaur Killer. Any of these techniques would
destroy most life on earth at minimal cost/effort compared to an
extended ground campaign. At the very end you might have to drop
cleanup crews to handle that last stubborn million holdouts, but then
you get a planet that will return to habitability and is devoid of
competitors both to Kra'Vak colonists and any transplanted flora/fauna
they introduce.

There's a good argument AGAINST extermination already, and that's that
Kra'Vak ground invasions have already happened. As John points out,
it's way easier to render a habitat uninhabitable from orbit than it
is to actually go down there and go hand-to-hand. If they're doing
ground invasions, that could be a cue that their objective is
something other than annihilation.

OK so let's assume conquest, since that requires the most conventional
force. Like John said, they need hydrogen for their fusion-powered
ground vehicles (and presumably, ships). They need water and
carbonaceous ore to make habitats for their troops while they wait for
the Big Drop. You need some kind of structural material. Some you can
cart in, but for an invasion of a planet with (by then) 12 billion
people, you need colossal resources, and presumably some kind of
staging area.

If I were invading late 22nd century Earth, I would need total control
of orbit. I would want to neutralize any moon base, and perhaps
establish one of my own. Beyond that, here's what I think we need to
watch:

1. There are several NEO asteroids, any would be a great start for
carting sufficient non-volatile resources in, especially if I can move
the asteroid into earth orbit (similarly, taking control of any
asteroids that HUMANS have moved into orbit is crucial). Keep in mind,
even many minor asteroids are GIGANTIC, capable of housing huge
numbers of troops. Remember also that their gravity is low enough that
you're talking about filling a volume, not covering a surface area. I
ran some back-of-the-envelope calculations about how many people you
could fit on a small asteroid and the number is astonishing. But my
understanding is that NEO's are short of volatile chemicals like water
that I'll need for my troops. So we have to do more.

2. Mars: Mars is a dump. Deep gravity well, not habitable unless we
somehow terraformed it. No resources we can't get more cheaply from
the Belt. Deimos and Phobos (mars's moons), on the other hand, are
potentially strategic targets. If I don't have a refueling base or
orbital construction base there, I should build one. Even when Mars is
in opposition, it's still relatively close by high-G continuous
thrust. So: neutralize any martian base, capture deimos/phobos.

3. The Belt: The asteroid belt is filled with useful resources, all
broken up into bite-sized chunks for easy exploitation. On one hand,
it has everything we need. Especially Ceres, which has no gravity well
to speak of and (it is believed), enough subsurface ice to supply your
whole invasion force. The only problem is that the Belt is going to be
thick with human habitats-- all with some moderate defenses, hard to
detect, and difficult to patrol. A big fleet could grab Ceres, but
there's simply no hope of completely clearing the belt. Human
resistance is likely to be strong here, but it's certainly a strategic
objective. Another value of Ceres: even if you don't have artificial
gravity (and the Kra'Vak *do*), the gravity is gentle enough here that
you could centrifuge your troops to simulate 1g.

4. The Jovian Subsystem: By that I mean underwater facilities (where
feasible) on the Galilean moons, and mining/industrial/naval
construction facilities in the trojan asteroids. A deep enough base on
Europa would be very hard to detect or harm from orbit, because you're
protected by all that water and ice. If Callisto and Ganymede have
similar bases, (and from my reading it's far less likely that they
have subsurface liquid water like that), then ditto for them.
Jupiter's magnetic field would wreak havoc on Kra'Vak sensors-- not
enough to hurt them, but plenty of noise for a colony under EMCON to
go undetected. Most of what I said for the Belt applies to the trojan
asteroids and minor moons. I'm not sure if the near-jupiter asteroids
are water-rich or not.

5. Saturn: Similar to Jupiter, with one exception. The Rings are chock
full of ice. Definitely desirable for invasion. Titan's methane and
water supplies would be crucial for habitats if they weren't so far
out from earth. Better to use Ceres, unless the theories that say that
Ceres is rich in subsurface ice turn out to be wrong. Titan is
probably a human base, so you'd either eliminate that from orbit or
use a ground invasion to try to capture it (mostly) intact). That's
hard considering the hostile environment.

Further out you have similar arguments. In general, you want to
eliminate any human habitats you find throughout the solar system to
prevent a counterattack (especially if humans resort to relativistic
kill vehicles for your staging area, though obviously FTL drive makes
that hard to defend against in general). In an attack on a colony,
this mostly consists of bypassing the habitats, taking the planet,
then going back and mopping up with patrol ships.

The Solar System is totally different. With two hundred years to
expand into the solar system, even now it's still very much a frontier
filled with all kinds of independent folk who will do whatever they
think they can to save the homeworld. But even sparsely settled, the
intrasolar population will be vast. A shattered human fleet would
fleet to outer colonies for repairs, but many would return to wage a
guerilla war in the asteroids. I think this would resemble the
island-hopping campaign of WWII in the pacific theatre. The Kra'Vak
might shatter the human fleet, push to Earth, clear Earth orbit and
the Moon, destroy starports and naval facilities on the ground, and
then back off and start systematically clearing the solar system while
keeping earth blockaded and building up an invasion force on the moon
or a NEO asteroid.

The Siege of Sol would take a very long time to do right. Unless
(again) you're aiming for annihilation, in which case John's point
applies.

-- 
Robert Mayberry

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