Re: [GZG] FTverse colinies

G'day guys,

For what its worth here is an old email containing rough population
numbers, from some simple population models (one sex, simple immigration
and epidemic model components with shifting carrying capacity tied to
planet type, tech level and infrastructure investment). Its possible to
refine them based on a two-sex model with metapopulation migration, but
despite that being on my "to-do list" for more than a year now I have
had a serious lack of time to get it up and going. Now if I could
justify giving the coding to my grad students as a class exercise it may
well get done before I retire ;)

Cheers

Beth 

-----Original Message-----
From: Beth.Fulton@csiro.au [mailto:Beth.Fulton@csiro.au] 
Sent: Sunday, 8 September 2002 11:42 PM
To: gzg-l@csua.berkeley.edu
Subject: Population Models

G'day,

I did up some more numbers. These are still rough, but they're a bit
more
polished than the last lot.

Low estimate (space travel is restricted, terraforming is a slow
process,
society suffers from the aging problem and AIDS etc, though I skipped
major
natural disasters, a collapse of the ecosphere due to mismanagement and
a
full on population crunch as I don't think we'd have time/economies left
to
turn to the stars so quickly in that case)
	  EARTH      OFFWORLD	    TOTAL
ESU    1.1 billion    7 million     1.107 billion
FSE    167 million    4.5 million   171.5 million
NAC    838 million    8 million     846 million
NSL    115 million    8.5 million   123.5 million
UN*    286 million    1.5 million   287.5 million
FCT    25 million     285,000	    25.29 million
IC     505 million    300,000	    505.3 million
IF     640 million    400,000	    640.4 million
JAP    120 million    260,000	    120.26 million
KNG    15.5 million   30,000	    15.53 million
LLAR   Nil	      425,000	    425,000
NI     Nil	      180,000	    180,000
OU     29 million     225,000	    29.23 million
PAU    195 million    304,000	    195.3 million
RH     23 million     86,000	    23.09 million
SK     Nil	      194,000	    194,000
SWISS  5.2 million    225,000	    5.43 million

TOTAL  4.06 billion   32.4 million  4.09 billion

* Read this as = a lot of the rest of humanity for now

Middle estimate (pretty middle of the road on all assumptions)
	  EARTH      OFFWORLD	    TOTAL
ESU    4.9 billion    2.1 billion   7 billion
FSE    344 million    738 million   1.08 billion
NAC    7.4 billion    2.15 billion  9.55 billion
NSL    378 million    490 million   868 million
UN*    958.5 million  250 million   1.2 billion
FCT    143.3 million  7.2 million   150.5 million
IC     717.5 million  56.7 million  774.2 million
IF     1.02 billion   25.6 million  1.05 billion
JAP    196 million    15 million    211 million
KNG    20.5 million   2.4 million   22.9 million
LLAR   Nil	      54 million    54 million
NI     Nil	      15.7 million  15.7 million
OU     40 million     20.4 million  60.4 million
PAU    602.5 million  81.4 million  683.9 million
RH     46.6 million   22.6 million  69.2 million
SK     Nil	      10.6 million  10.6 million
SWISS  11.1 million   10.9 million  22 million

TOTAL  15.8 billion   6.0 billion  22.8 billion

High estimate (you would have to be able to pack them into ships like
sardines, have fleets on constant turn around to garden planets and
figure
out how to have artificial wombs or multiple births or huge support
system
to get this one done)
	  EARTH      OFFWORLD	    TOTAL
ESU    9.8 billion    7 billion     16.8 billion
FSE    1.2 billion    4 billion     5.2 billion
NAC    11.05 billion  7.6 billion   18.65 billion
NSL    845 million    4 billion     4.85 billion
UN*    3 billion      875 million   3.88 billion
FCT    419 million    440 million   859 million
IC     1.6 billion    2 billion     3.6 billion
IF     2.4 billion    3 billion     5.4 billion
JAP    430 million    610 million   1.04 billion
KNG    75 million     20 million    95 million
LLAR   Nil	      348 million   348 million
NI     Nil	      60 million    60 million
OU     88 million     545 million   633 million
PAU    2.6 billion    568 million   3.17 billion
RH     295 million    275 million   570 million
SK     Nil	      54 million    54 million
SWISS  132 million    100 million   232 million

TOTAL  33.9 billion  31.5 billion  65.4 billion

As to the question about the inner systems I assumed they were split
between
all of humanity, but weighted towards the larger nations which started
FTL
flights early rather than later.

Cheers

Beth

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