Statistical meanderings (was Re: [GZG] laser classes)

--- Brian B <brianbinor@gmail.com> wrote:
> > The cases are additive so with 16 cases
> > odds are 16 in 30,233,088 so the final count 
> > is 1 in 1,889,568.
> 
> Wrong a final time.  Remember that when you add, you have
> to add to BOTH sides -- so even using your incorrect 
> 30,233,088 16 cases with odds of 1 in 30,233,088 per case 
> means odds odf 16 in 483,729,408 which comes out to 1 in 
> 30,233,088.

I don't want to get embroiled into this too much, Brian, but
take a step back here:

How did you get odds of 1 in 3 of rolling a 4 or 5, if you add
*both* sides?  Odds of getting a "4" on a d6 is 1 in 6; a 5 is
one in 6; you add those odds together (for a single roll), you
get 2 in 6 or 1 in 3.

Same thing with reviewing sets of results within in a single
statistical tree; the number of cases adds, while the "odds of"
each case does not.

'Til later,
Aaron

		
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