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Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2005 19:10:15 -0700 (PDT)

Subject: Statistical meanderings (was Re: [GZG] laser classes)

```
--- Brian B <brianbinor@gmail.com> wrote:
> > The cases are additive so with 16 cases
> > odds are 16 in 30,233,088 so the final count
> > is 1 in 1,889,568.
>
> Wrong a final time. Remember that when you add, you have
> to add to BOTH sides -- so even using your incorrect
> 30,233,088 16 cases with odds of 1 in 30,233,088 per case
> means odds odf 16 in 483,729,408 which comes out to 1 in
> 30,233,088.
I don't want to get embroiled into this too much, Brian, but
take a step back here:
How did you get odds of 1 in 3 of rolling a 4 or 5, if you add
*both* sides? Odds of getting a "4" on a d6 is 1 in 6; a 5 is
one in 6; you add those odds together (for a single roll), you
get 2 in 6 or 1 in 3.
Same thing with reviewing sets of results within in a single
statistical tree; the number of cases adds, while the "odds of"
each case does not.
'Til later,
Aaron
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