RE: Statistics - was RE: [GZG] Re: laser classes

Technically no.  The original statement was 19 points of damage from 2
class 1 "lasers" (assume beams).  If Beam A had totally missed, then the
statement would have been 19 points from a single Class 1 "laser".

If you want to be picky there are 8 6's followed by a re-roll, one 6
followed by a miss and then a final die that is 4 or 5 with no re-roll. 

The die roll that misses is moot since it doesn't add a point or a
re-roll.  It is similar to all the X batteries that fired the same turn
and missed, you don't count them in the calculation.

Including the miss die is also extraneous for this reason - let's say
for argument's sake that the opponent instead of rolling a miss, chose
not to re-roll a six.  Are you saying the probability of scoring 19
points changes because the 11th die wasn't rolled? The answer is no.
Which means the 11th die is completely irrelevant to the odds of scoring
19 points with 2 class 1 beams.

Example with 3 dice - chance to roll a total of 18 on three dice (1 in
216)
A - 6,6,6
B - 6,6,6,(1)

If you didn't know what the 4th die roll was, do the odds of the first
three rolls change? 

--Binhan

-----Original Message-----
From: gzg-l-bounces@lists.csua.berkeley.edu
[mailto:gzg-l-bounces@lists.csua.berkeley.edu] On Behalf Of
dean@star-ranger.com
Sent: Tuesday, October 25, 2005 1:43 PM
To: gzg-l@lists.csua.berkeley.edu
Subject: RE: Statistics - was RE: [GZG] Re: laser classes

> You are asking a different question: Does using more batteries produce
> an increased chance of causing 19 points, and the answer is yes.  The
> above analysis was for a specific event and limited itself to fixed
> end-point - 19 points in 10 dice.  You are asking if given an
unlimited
> pool of dice, would more dice have a greater chance of scoring 19
points
> than fewer and the answer is yes. If you limit the dice pool (10 dice)
> the answer is no.

I think in this case, we are dealing with a pool of 11 dice instead of
10, as
Beam A could miss totally (1-3 on the d6) and then Beam B hits with a 6
and so
on for a total of 10 dice from B alone.  Together that is 11 dice, so
the
probability we are looking for is the chance to get 19 points of damage
with a
pool of 11 dice.

Dean Gundberg

Starship Combat News
The latest information on Space Games and Miniatures
http://www.star-ranger.com
dean@star-ranger.com

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