Fw: [semi-OT] Fuel Cells to Beth

I sent this message out in early Feb but accidentally included rich text
so...

****************************************
Actually, in the US the single biggest producer of hydrogen is...the oil
companies!

They currently generate hydrogen from natural gas and as a by-product of
petroleum refining.

Currently the US produces 515 BILLION cubic feet of hydrogen and has an
extensive distribution network along the Gulf coast. If this hydrogen
was
diverted to personal transportation utilizing the first generation GM
HyWire
hydrogen auto, it would provide about 10% of the US personal
transportation
energy budget.

In fact, hydrogen at the source of production in the US costs about
one-half
of what gasoline costs at the source of production. The problem is
transport
and storage: the current average hydrogen storage loses 4% of its
contents
per day, making hydrogen a truly perishable commodity.

Lastly, hydrogen fuel cells in cars can provide power to their
homeowners.
Try these numbers:
Take all the cars registered in the state of California;
Convert them all to HyWire;
At any given moment have 4% (1 in 25) plugged into the power grid
providing
power back into the grid (not a big problem since the average US auto is
parked 90% of the day);
You now have TWICE the average electrical generation capacity that the
whole
state of California did in 2001!

Now everything is not rosy yet in hydrogen heaven:
1) The problem of storing and transporting hydrogen cheaply has yet to
be
solved. General Motors has prototype plans for site generation of
hydrogen
at fueling stations;
2) Hydrogen generated from fossil fuel sources can be an interim
solution
but it isn't viable long-term. Expansion of solar, hydro, and nuclear
sources of electrical generation and on-site generation of hydrogen is
seen
as a solution. (BTW, given that the nuclear fuel resources of the planet
are
also finite, this could be a big spur to mining the solar system).
3) Money, this probably will cost some $10 trillion dollars over 40
years.
Overcoming society's inertia and the entrenched environmental mindset
will
be difficult. The current eco-warrior creed demands short-term solutions
at
the expense of long-term sustainability. There's been studies in the US
since the 1970s (primarily by Lovett and his group) showing the
long-term
economic benefits of a hydrogen economy-unfortunately, the studies
indicate
that both the planet-rapers and the eco-warriors are wrong, alienated
all
the interested parties, and were totally ignored.
4) Many people get hung up on the cost of converting to hydrogen. Here's
some thinking points:
4a) If we don't convert to hydrogen, what else do we do? It's estimated
that
the Third World will by 2070 increase the world's	  personal
transportation energy demand by 500%. The oil companies themselves
estimate
petrol production will max out		       somewhere between 2020
and
2040. So eco-warriors, let's do the math...
4b) The petroleum revolution cost alot more $10 trillion (adjusted
dollars).
The developed world already has the road system 	    and
electrical
grid. GM has the cars and the technology (trust me, they do). All we
need is
the support structure, and that 	    support structure should be
seen
not as a cost but as capital investment and economic development...which
can
be sold to the	Third World in return for whatever we want (that's
thrown in
for the greedy, cannibalistic, imperialist oppressors amongst you-long
may we rule in opulent decadent comfort).

Lastly even the oil companies like the hydrogen idea. They're looking at
the
end of the easily-pumped oil pool. And that's the key point:
easily-pumped,
meaning cheaply pumped. We have a thousand years of oil left on this
planet-if you want to pay $223 a gallon to pick up your kids at soccer.
I
won't do that, most people won't do that, and the oil companies are
seeing
the end approaching for gasoline economies (even if you totally ignore
pollution concerns).

Actually, it's unrealistic to talk about "oil companies". They are
energy
companies, producing and selling energy. Right now, money is being made
in
petroleum. They'll be just as happy (probably happier) taking your money
for
hydrogen.

Scott Watts
Former Exploration Geologist

----- Original Message -----
From: <Beth.Fulton@csiro.au>
To: <gzg-l@csua.berkeley.edu>
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 5:20 PM
Subject: RE: [semi-OT] Fuel Cells was: Space Programs (warning future
hist
ory comments may arise.... ;))

> G'day,
>
> > Therefore, *IF* you're going to
> > go with official history, I'd suggest that you either
> > A) have the US slip as a result of shortages BEFORE
> > the technology saves the day, or B) Find someo ther
> > cause of the US fall.
>
> Actually what I had in mind was that the oil lobby keeps them out
until
too
> late and then they don't get it done in time. So by those standards
these
> first steps are much faster ;)
>
> Cheers
>
> Beth
>