Re: 2nd/3rd rate powers - LLAR - and now Africans...

At 4:31 PM -0400 8/16/02, Adrian Johnson wrote:
>
>Sure, a bunch of warriors with spears and loincloths vs. machineguns,
no
>matter how fierce the warriors, will lose.  See the Italian campaigns
in
>North Africa during the '30's.

Hmm. What if they have bags of meal to hide behind? Oh and some nice 
Engneers along?

>But the PAU has faster-than-light starships...  They aren't exactly
>suffering from that 2000 year tech gap anymore...

Heck, 20 years is a pretty significant lag. Especially in terms of 
war fighting. Just look at ELINT and its effects on the battle field.

>Look, the original question was (to paraphrase Beth):
>
>"Why does everyone dump on the PAU and assume they're crap?"
>
>and John Atkinson's response was (again to paraphrase):
>
>"Because Africa has never produced good professional militaries, except
the
>South Africans"

And the Rhodesians, while they were Rhodesians. Now there a bunch of 
land squatting thugs.

>
>We have *no* idea what African society 100 years from now will look
like,
>because the effects of the rampant corruption, AIDS epidemics, etc.,
will
[snip]

Ok, what does St. Jon think? He's written the path for the LLAR so 
far. Whats the deal with the PAU?

>SO, we move into the realm of PHB (same as PSB, but "historical"
instead of
>"scientific").
>
>I think it is silly to write of 180 years of development of a whole
>continent by saying "they're crap now so they'll always be crap".  That

To pull your nation out of 300+ years worth of trouble and problems 
requires a very strong organized drive and a strong central 
organization. Case in point Meiji Japan. The nation was an illiterate 
backwater with none of the assets you'd expect it to need in order to 
fight 1st world nations on their own terms.

After examining how each nation handled things and doing everything 
the government could, they started beating Europe at it's own game 
after the pull on their boots and built an educated work force that 
could make the required industries work.

At that point, Japan was one nation. One race of people. One 
Language. One government with very strong central authority. It took 
them 50 years or so to really start making Europe worry. The final 
exclamation point of the reformation was the War with the Russians 
where the third rate power beat what was then considered a 2nd to 1st 
rate power in a series of modern naval and land battles.

Now, Africa has many nations, many cultures, many languages, many 
problems. Many tribes. Tribes that should be living along side each 
other peacefully are still hacking each other apart. Zimbabwe's drive 
to expel white land owners (not rich land owners) from their land is 
threatening to turn their once food wealthy nation into a land that 
needs to import food.

>just ignores lots and lots of examples throughout history of human
>societies that changed.  Sure, there are plenty of examples of
societies
>that have got *worse* in that period of time, or changed very little. 
But
>to say "they're crap now and they'll be crap then" requires some
>explanation of WHY they are crap in the future.  Just saying "because
>they're crap now" isn't enough.  It is POSSIBLE that they would be
>mediocre.  It is POSSIBLE that they might even have some very good
forces.

Granted, turning around is possible. They can turn around and become 
a great power ala Japan in 1940. Nearly 100 years of work came to 
fruition when the attacked the US. Of course it came tumbling down in 
4 years of war. At current, Africa has basically the same situation 
that Japan did in it's feudal period before Tokugawa brought 
everything together under the rule of one. One could say Africa is 
worse off because they have many languages and cultures to try to 
homogenize and integrate. Until they do so, they are going to have a 
hard time getting things to work. There are too many conflicting 
petty agendas for each petty despot, warlord and dictator to get them 
together and agree on one direction.

>We know they have fleets of faster-than-light starships, which they
manage,
>somehow, to PAY for and crew.	SO, we know they've advanced beyond the
>stage they're at now.	As to how far...?  That's up to you in your
version
>of the universe.

The Dutch have a fleet of ships. They don't have many, but they have 
some modern warships. Could they come close to prosecuting a war with 
any major neighbor? France? the UK? The US? Not even close.

>  >The only question that matters is whether you would win a war with X
power
>>with similiar amounts of force involved.  The 1st rate militaries
would win
>>a war with anybody, and I do mean anybody, with similar size forces
>>involved.  The reasons of _why_ they'd win, or how Western they are in
doing
>>it, don't matter.
>
>Ok, but that isn't relevant to the original post, or my response.

So they have a fraction of the power base that the NAC has. They 
purchased it from outside. How did they get to the point they are 
then (in 2183)?

>I'm not debating that the NAC would smash the PAU into tiny pieces if
they
>went head on. 
>
>The point was whether or not the PAU is capable of fielding competent
>professional military forces.	I'm saying "maybe, it could, you can
make
>arguments either way, so whatever suits your vision of the universe...
>there is nothing saying that they WILL FOR SURE be one way or the
other".

Likely a marginally competent force with some good technology and 
some decent. The average should be below the 1st powers and leading 
second powers. They likely don't have an American 1812 navy with the 
best that congress could purchase by investing in a smaller number of 
better trained/equipped/manned ships. The US was well off because it 
took

>
>Nor do we want the NAC to be uniformly good, the ESU to be uniformely
>mediocre, and everyone else to suck...  There are good reasons why the
IF
>could field excellent units, as could the PAU.  In SG, we're only
talking
>about small units, and mostly the same for DS also.  In a campaign
setting,
>the "good" units of the IF or the PAU would almost certainly be much
>smaller in numbers than the "good" units of the NAC, but there is no
reason
>why you couldn't have a SG game where the PAU unit on the table is
Veteran...

Nonsense. You've got the OU, (likely good but compact) the FCT (good, 
moderately sized and very well led due to ex NAC doctrine, training, 
NCOs, and Technology). Plus a lot of other nations.

>The question was whether PAU unit will always suck or not.

Everyone sucks. For example, CNN Sucks on huge high traffic days. We 
just suck less. (You can't quote me on that, but thats how it all 
works).

>
>The PAU has FTL starships and off-planet colonies... They aren't
running
>about in the jungle in loincloths with spears.  They could have good
>military forces too.

African nations have warships too. They don't have Aircraft carriers, 
large missile cruisers and Air forces with more than a squadron or 
two. They also have hand me down technology.

Likely the PAU has the same kind of Battle ships that were handed 
over to other nations post WWII. Many ships got some pretty good 
hardware for the time. They still have the hardware. The General 
Belgrano is a good example. Ships like that work well for other small 
nations, but when they try to fight with the big nations those ships 
end up as graves.

>
>Do wolverines fly FTL spaceships and have off-planet colonies?  We're
>talking about the capabilities of *people*... who do not remain fixed
and
>static in time...

Can they handle long term protracted operations outside of their 
immediate space? There is more to having a navy than having the 
ships. Argentena could barely project power a few hundred miles off 
their coast. Most of it was Air power. Their Naval forces sat things 
out when their flag ship was sunk with technology from its era by a 
40 year younger vessel.

Could Argentena project its power beyond its immediate area and 
prosecute a war in the North Atlantic? Not likely. They need 
logistics ships. There is more to fighting a naval war than having 
the ships. You have to be able to supply them and fight them for 
extended periods of time.

>  > However, technology does
>>matter. 
>
>Sure, and they've got FTL spaceships and off-planet colonies...

And 3rd world nations have F4s (the prop kind and the jet kind). They 
also have tanks and other things. They still have a significant 
distance between them and the curve.

I'm ending this here as this thread is far too long already...
-- 
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