Re: [SG2/DS] Intel

On Thu, 11 Jul 2002 15:15:57 +1000 "Alan and Carmel Brain"
<aebrain@webone.com.au> writes:
>From: "John Atkinson" <johnmatkinson@yahoo.com>
>
>> That's the funny thing.  They've got a lot of really
>> good raw data.
>> 
>> It's the conclusions they reach from that data that
>> makes me call 'em weenies.
>> 
>> Ivory tower idealists, actually.
>
>Much as I disagree with a lot of their conclusions....
>Gathering data is relatively easy. Analysing it is the
>hard part. Taking 2+2 and making 5.
>
>My own experience has been limited to semi-commercial
>military analysis. Basically, given a whole heap of
>unclassified data on possible opponents, decide what
>equipment is required to beat them, so we can then make
>said equipment.
>
>Our proposal is then submitted (along with competing
>proposals) to the *real* analysts, who have access to
>data we don't have.
>
>This process involves a LOT of talking to serving and
>ex-serving military personnel. Otherwise it's far too
>easy to make something the Engineers and Scientists
>will love, but will fall apart at the seams in combat.
>
>What I'm trying to say is that military anlysis is
>hard: it's an art, not a science, with a lot of
>heuristics ( ie guesswork and hunches ). The people who
>are good at it can't always, or even usually, give a
>closely-reasoned analysis of why they came to the
>conclusion that they did on such contradictory and
>skimpy data: they just point to their track record of
>success. Some of them are so good, it's scary - even to
>them. But they don't like letting the troops in the field
>know just how thin a justification they have for their
>conclusions: it would sap confidence. Whereas the Intel
>world is full of weenies who have much more plausible
>and well-reasoned ideas, that are just plain wrong. And
>so people die, because someone was too afraid to say
>what the best guess was, giving the one with the best
>reasoning instead.
>
> 

At the risk of "me too" - Hallelujah, Amen!"

Gracias,
Glenn/Triphibious@juno.com
This is my Science Fiction Alter Ego E-mail address.
Historical - Warbeads@juno.com
Fantasy and 6mm - dwarf_warrior@juno.com

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