Re: [FH] americas

Putting on my professional hat (a first on this list:)

On Mon, 3 Jun 2002 17:27:20 -0700 (PDT) John Hamill <jwdh71@yahoo.com>
writes:
<snip>
>Well, from a Canadian living in the Deep South, here are some 
>suggestions of
>things that will hit a boiling point in the next 50 years or so.
>

An inside outsider view, cool.

>- Oil. This is going to be a world wide issue. There's something like 
>reserves
>only until 2030 to 2050.<snip> potential exceeds probablre reality
since
they won't run out overnight and nations actually *do* respons when they
*absolutely have to* in these matters.	?How they respond, well, that's
the crux, no?

>
>I think that when the oil begins to run out (which I seriously doubt 
>will happen very soon, world estimates of oil reserves keep getting 
>larger), there will be several solutions waiting in the wings, ready 
>to be implemented.

Agreed.

 A more interesting scenario is the one posited by 
>science fiction writer S M Stirling in his short story 
>"Roachstompers", where the sudden arrival to market of an alternative 
>energy source (in this case working cold fusion) destroyed the 
>economies of oil exporting states, including Mexico, and turned the 
>southern border of the USA into a free-fire zone.
>

Very dependent on what the source is and where the resources for *it*
come from and how available they are...

>
>- The Environment. Louisiana has a rotten track record for air 
>pollution and
>water pollution. It's only "bright spot" is that it lives beside Texas 
>which
>has a worse track record. The biggest problem is fresh water. 

Okay, this is the one that scares the shit out of me.  Resources (short
of massive desalination) are very fixed, alternatives (what
alternatives?!) plus short time to fix problem (how thirsty are you?)
whether long term shortage or drought/pollution stricken people with
guns, all the lovely flash points in spots already armed to the teeth or
with historical nuclear weapon capability.

Water 
>runs
>downhill, which generally means from the north to the south in North 
>America.
>If states or countries (i.e. Canada) start hoarding water upstream, 
>you'll see
>major infighting downstream.
>

Ask Mexico how they like the Colorado River water they (almost don't)
get
(after 110% is	claimed enroute...)

>Heh. Go on, complain about Texas, I'll see you the Houston metroplex 
>and raise you the entire southern border region, which I happen to 
>live in. The major pollution is in the Houston area, which 
>occasionally give the Los Angeles area a run for it's money as the 
>Most Polluted Metro Area In The US (well, so some of the numbers say, 
>there is much noise from the Houston area that the numbers are being 
>cooked, as well as the BIG difference in populationbetween the two), 
>however, just a portion of the Mexican border areas are far mmore 
>polluted than Houston, and they aren't doing anything about it. At 
>least here we have a few laws about pollution.
>

Hmm, I admit I have not a clue how South America is on that issue... Any
contributors?

>- Health Care. The US health care system is awful. The quality of 
>health care
>is good... if you can afford it. Most employers offer health 
>insurance, but
>often you have to pay for it yourself (the only "benefit" is that the 
>employer
>lets you into the health plan). Far too many Americans think they 
>qualify for
>Medicaid when they don't, and far too many are going to have to rely 
>on
>Medicare. Add in an aging population and this is going to be a big 
>issue in
>the next decade or two, bigger than it is now. Okay, not enough to 
>trigger
>warfare, so add a new disease. Something slow and dibilitating, 
>something that
>would hit a certain large sector of the population. A flu outbreak 
>wouldn't do
>it, as the government would probably give out free shots. It would 
>have to be
>something really nasty that causes a burden on part of the country but 
>maybe
>not on another part. For instance, Louisiana has had a problem with
>encephalitis the last couple of years. The place where I live has had 
>70 cases
>in the last year and a couple of deaths. Ratchet that up a bit, add in 
>a
>federal government with other pressures that is slow to give, say, the
>Southern states (or, if you want CalTex, those two regions) money to 
>fight a
>problem like this, and you have a major case of social unrest.
>

Old people don't riot well, yet.

>The health care situation in the US is extremely complicated, but in 
>the method of paying for it, not in quality. There is a very good 
>reason that people come to the US to get medical care, there is some 
>of the finest treatment centers and best medical professionals 
>practice here. At the same time there is a distinct problem with the 
>high cost of average care in this country. There are many reasons for 
>it, but what it boils down to is the simple fact that there is no real 
>free market in medicine in the country, which is ironic due to free 
>market reform being touted everywhere else in the world by our 
>government. You have in this country one of the last remaining Guild 
>systems (the AMA) , heavy government interference and subsidies, and 
>collusion between the providers of medical care and the insurance 
>companies that pay for it. If it were anything else but the medical 
>field, the whole system would have been scrapped years ago as totally 
>inefficient and dangerously corrupt.
>
>- Racial Tension. I've noticed being down here that the racial issue 
>in the US
>is both more and less of a problem than most foreigners see depicted 
>in TV.
>This would be too long to discuss, but it wouldn't be difficult to 
>come up
>with a scenario where racially motivated violence blossomed into a 
>major
>problem. 
>

True, more and less.  as an American Mongrel (you all know the mantra I
expect) who looks very 'white' unlike some of my family I see this from
several angles and it's a tricky thing to predict.  I think those areas
where race and lack of opportunity to advance at all is mingled with
success of other groups could turn out to be a (pardon the term)
'tactical' problem in the GZG time line but, by itself, not a source of
disintegration.

>Race is a problem in the US, I've seen it from several sides, as one 
>half of an interracial couple, as a minority in a mostly monoracial 
>area, as someone who was racially profiled and stopped by police for 
>"driving while white", and as a student of history. But the biggest 
>problems seem to be in areas of the country that are outside the 
>common American culture, i.e. those areas that are behind the times 
>such as Louisiana, east Texas, sections of the Deep South and old 
>eastern urban areas. Ironically the area of the country that is known 
>for praising itself for "tolerence", California, seems to have the 
>most problems with racial tensions. 
>

Contact me off list, please.

>- Religious Tension. I live in the bible belt. I see what intense 
>feelings
>people have with religion. The division of church and state in the 
>Deep South
>is mostly just lip service, with the federal government stepping in 
>when
>things get too far out of whack. Then you have the deeply held 
>feelings
>against cloning and stem cells derived from fetuses (feti?). The 
>abortion
>debate has already had bloodshed. You also have fringe religions that 
>have
>gone into violence (Waco, anyone?). It wouldn't be difficult to derive 
>a
>scenario around religious upheaval, particularly with modern 
>scientific
>discoveries.
>

You need to factor in the leadership in charismatic movements and the
tendency of most religions to mainstream to their culture (see Islam,
Jihad and secular Islam pushing the personal war against <whatever they
call sin/evil> as 'true' jihad..)

>The time of Christian Jihad is well over. I've lived most of my life 
>in areas of deeply held religious belief, I am not religious myself, 
>and have not had any serious problems with it. Now Louisiana might be 
>a special case, but it would take a lot more than some theological 
>disagreements to spark a disintegration of the US. The vast majority 
>of Americans are people who believe in some sort of religion, but very 
>few are seriously fanatical about it.
>

See main streaming comment above.

>- Gun Control. Oooo! I said the two-words-that-shall-not-be-stated! 
>This has
>the potential of being a major powder keg. Right now violent crime 
>rates are
>down in the US. If they were to climb again, you might see cities and 
>states
>(mostly in the north, maybe on the west coast) demanding gun control. 
>I live
>in the Deep South... they really do mean, "You can take my gun away if 
>you can
>pry it from my cold, dead fingers!"
>

Yes, but that is more a tactical then a strategic problem.  Although it
provides the means for revolt/disruption/disintegration.  Concord
anyone?

>As someone who has lived most of his life around hunters and sportsman 
>I can agree. Away from the major metropolitan areas, in the areas that 
>still hold to that lifestyle, there would be no way that severe gun 
>control legislation on the federal level would be enforcable, and it 
>would cause a split in the country, or rather, complete a split that 
>happened a long time ago. There is the definate possibility this will 
>happen in the future, and gives me the most worry for the continued 
>health of the country. It isn't just gun control though, it is a 
>number of issues the "city folk" and "country folk" just can't agree 
>on, and with a democratic government, the issue goes to the biggest 
>number of voters.  
>

Agricultural support/cost of food.   How do you want to pay for your
food?

>I really don't think that the GZG timeline is realistic. However, if 
>you are
>looking for a fictional way of breaking up the US, here are some 
>ideas. It
>would probably take more than one at a time to do it. Mix and match 
>two or
>three at once, and you could have your fictional reason for breaking 
>up the
>continent.
>

That and a big rash of more than normal stupid.  Not impossible, just
requires more "work" to happen.

>
>Allan Goodall agoodall@hyperbear.com
>http://www.hyperbear.com
>
>As far as the realism of the timeline, it's a good bet to say it is 
>HIGHLY fictional. Be that as it may, you are right in that it would 
>take at least two or three ideas from your list, and maybe a couple 
>more, to do what the timeline says.
>
>John
>
>jwdh71@yahoo.com
>

Gracias,
Glenn/Triphibious@juno.com
This is my Science Fiction Alter Ego E-mail address.
Historical - Warbeads@juno.com
Fantasy and 6mm - dwarf_warrior@juno.com

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