Re: Red Star/White Star in 45-46

From: "John Atkinson" <johnmatkinson@yahoo.com>

> "The Red Army could not have concieved or executed the
> advance made by the Third Army through France."
>    --Joe Stalin

Let alone what I ( NOT a fan of G.S.Patton ) consider to be
the finest piece of manoeuvre warfare of the 20th century:
the 3rd Army's 90 degree change of axis-of-attack during
the dark December of 1944.
			
This is OT for this list - more in the realms of sfconsim-l,
but here goes my 2c anyway.

I'm not familiar with the proportion of M$A3/easy-8s in the US army
in 1945. Do you have any figures to back up the contention that
"most front-liners" had em? My impression was that they made up
at most 20% of the total by mid 45. But I have no figures to hand.
I know just over 49,234 of all marks were produced up to June 1945.
(plus another 15,000 or so by the UK). Models with the 76mm
gun made up only 4,542 (including conversions) of this production total
 ( see http://www.tintti.net/jarmolaakso/linkit/tanks.html )
so 20% of those in the ETO sounds about right.
To this can be added 600 or so UK Fireflies.

There were about the same number of T-34s produced - 33,800 T34/76
and 21,000 T34/85. So there'd be about a 50/50 mix in late 1945.

I'm omitting other UK Tanks, US TDs, M26s  etc, but also the 10,000 or
so
USSR ISU-2s, SU-122s etc. And the Shermans of all marks in Soviet
service,
including many of the rare 76mm versions.

All-in-all IMHO the US and UK would have had a fight on their hands
in the armour vs armour field. Instead of 20 Shermans (regardless
of Mark) up against a broken-down Tiger with no fuel and 2 Mk IVs,
they'd be faced with 20 T-34s, half of em with 85mm guns, and often
with experienced crews.

A rather different kettle-of-fish.

As regards the Soviet Air Force: They had the numbers, and the
equipment. Pilot ability too, to some extent. But the doctrine
sucked. They would have been massacred in droves - though for
the first 6 months their ground-attack abilities would have
severely embarressed the Allies, at least in clear weather.
Allied tactical flak was a bit light compared with German flak, but
much more important, they'd had little practice since the Allies had 
such total Air Supremacy. But in the long
run, no contest. No UK delivery of Rolls-Royce jets to the USSR
post-war means no Mig-15s. 1944-45 UK M52 project not being cancelled
means short-range Supersonic combat aircraft in 48 at the latest.

But most importantly of all, the Red Army in 45 had one big problem 
- the same problem that the UK had, and which the US was just starting
to have.

Lack of Manpower.

The Red Army hit its peak in mid 45. They just didn't have the
resources to keep an army that large up to strength. The
massive exchange of lives for territory that they were forced
to endure vs the Nazis was no longer going to be a viable option.
After the loss of 1/2 million men in the campaign for Berlin,
including 100,000 dead, they were hurtin' badly.

So I reckon the Russians would almost certainly have been in Paris in 
46, but the Allies in a (slightly irradiated) Moscow by 48. 49 tops.