Why superships cost more per mass
From: "Thomas Barclay" <kaladorn@f...>
Date: Fri, 29 Jun 2001 02:46:03 -0400
Subject: Why superships cost more per mass
I'm going to point out something I haven't seen
anyone mention. The issue of system
complexity. A larger system is a more complex
system and this applies in pretty much any area
of engineering. A large ship has the same
problems a small ship does, but not just on a
larger scale. It has an increased level of
interconnectivity between combat systems, it
has a whole raft of problems never seen in
smaller ships which mean more engineering and
possibly more expense to solve (often differing
systems), and it has to not only be more costly
in proportion to its increase in mass, but
probably in proportion to a power of the
increasing mass. Anyone who has worked on
systems on small vessels and large vessels, or
on small planes and large planes knows that
some of those systems need to be scaled up
and the increase in complexity is not linear.
Additionally, I suspect shipyard space, even if it
is orbital, increases in cost at more than a
linear cost. Maybe less so than in aquatic
equivalents, due to the difference between orbit
where I can slap similar yard modules together
and the ground where I need a bigger slip. But
there is still an increasing number of personel
involved and coordination on these projects.
Anyone who has worked for IBM, Sun, Mutual
Life, etc. (or the army) will realize that as your
work force gets larger, management increases.
Not just in numbers, but in levels. You get
middle management. You get more overhead
per person. This isn't just waste, it represents
the difficulties of coordinating large worker
pools. Also, as you get these larger groups, a
screw up by one person or group holds up a
larger number of people and hence costs more
than on a smaller project. Hence your large
ship constructions will run longer and cost more
just due to organizational complexity.
Must this be the case? Hmmm. I don't think we
have one good example of where it isn't. This
relies more on the nature of large complex
electronic, mechanical, and human systems and
organizations than it does on the particulars of
making any one subsystem (such as a beam 1
or beam 4). It is _possible_ that you could PSB
away these problems (or characteristics), but I
don't think this has been historically supported.
All one has to do is look at the Canadian Navy's
relatively modest effort to construct 12 frigates
and how badly cost overrun and delayed some
of the systems have been (anyone heard of the
HMCS Ville De Quebec?) to illustrate the point.
These are not huge ships. They aren't terribly
more complicated than many smaller vessels.
They (if the people who believe in cheap large
projects and scaling linearly with mass are
right) should have been constructed far sooner,
with far fewer problems, and with far less cost.
It didn't happen. This is only ONE example of
this. Many exist.
The other thing is, on large scale projects,
despite people making derisive noises, the
costs escalate due to the Military Industrial
Complex's billing and project management. On
larger projects, managers fear larger looming
unknowns. (This applies to construction of a
known class almost as much as to construction
of a new class - note that rarely are two ships
of the same design truly the same due to
continous upgrades during construction which
throw wrenches into things and these are
consistently occuring). So they budget in not
just more gross amounts of time, but more
percentage wise. This also tends to increase the
profit margin, because that is a factor applied
to the overall budget. So if the budget goes up
due to complexity or schedule fears, and if
penalty payments and stuff go into it, and profit
is a percent of that, the whole gets more
expensive in a not-linear-with-mass way.
It isn't that it isn't (theoretically) possible to
construct large ships in an automated assembly
line fashion for a proportionate-to-mass cost. It
has just (AFAIK) been not done yet, or if so,
done a heck of a lot fewer times than the other
option (disproportionate-to-larger-mass costs).
Ultimately, this comes down to doing what you
want. The costs in the game are not quite right
for one off combat, and work for small
campaigns. They probably aren't great for large
scale campaigns (strategic games spanning
years or decades), but they were never meant
to be. In general, they balance (mostly) against
one another if you use FB ships. If you design
your own, you'll have to apply good sense to
realize where the system is likely to break.
Caveat Emptor.