Re: [FT] Bell Curve SMLs

>----- Ursprüngliche Nachricht -----
>Absender: laserlight@quixnet.net
>Betreff: Re: [FT] Bell Curve SMLs
>Empfänger: gzg-l@CSUA.Berkeley.EDU
>Datum: 13. Nov 2000 13:56
>
> > I propose to make the accuracy of placing the aiming point of teh > 
> SML depend on the range as follows:
> 
> The part that bothers me about this is that, in the accepted scale,
> you're talking about 1000's of km of deviation and no particular
> physical reason (wind, current) for it.

In the PSB explanation at the end of my message, I tried to give a 
reasoning for the scattering, namely the natural accumulation of random 
errors in the aiming/boost process of the missiles. This applies to any
type 
of shooting in real life, though in precision weapons, these errors are 
so small as to make no difference. 

Note that this is different from the systematic deviations caused by 
winds and currents, which can (in principle) be corrected for. Have a 10

knot wind from the left ? Aim 5 degrees to the right of the target.

The random error I proposed is certainly very large, but I made it so 
to discourage long-range shooting. Feel free to alter the numbers in the

proposal.

The standard deviation of the difference of 2 dice is of the order of 
2, that is 2/3 of the throws will be in the value range +-2. As proposed

in the rules, it will be 20% of range, large indeed. At 24", 2/3 of the 
hits will be within 4.8" of the aiming point. 

Perhaps we really should divide the range by 20 rather than 10 to get 
at the deviation, resulting in a sigma of 10% (2.4" at 24").
 
> And if you're maneuvering at high speeds, presumably he is too-in 
> which case a missile strike like this is very much a gamble, in 
> cinematic at least.

Well, I was looking primarily at vector. But, yes, the point was to 
make extra-long-range missile strikes very much a gamble. A ammo is 
limited,  presumably it would be wise to wait with the missiles until
you get a
 
reasonable shot. Of course, if the enemy comes on a wide front, you 
would hit wherever the missiles decide to go.

Greetings
Karl Heinz