RE: Population modelling

Looking at the Future History of the GZG universe, I think that the rush
to 
colonization was a land-grab/power projection move.

It was only 6 years from the launching of the trans-solar probe to the
first

colony ships (only 2 from the first manned trip). 2062-2069.

It was only 1 more year until all of the major powers (and some minor
powers)
had launched colony ships (LLAR being the exception). 2070.

Then it is 6 years until the first combat starship (the HMS Thunderer)
is
launched. 2076.

Even by 2102, the European Space Force consists of mainly in-system
ships and "very few" FTL-capable ships.

I imagine that these colony ships are either:
A) Reusable as components for the colony
 or
B) Leave all but the bridge and engines at the colony for resources.

The colonists would have traveled in cryogenic sleep to save space.
Also,
artificial gravity for decks was not implemented until 2104 (MSS
Windsor).

It only takes 37 years for the population of Albion to match that of
England.
(That's what 2 generations?).

If you look at the money, manpower, and expense that went into the 
"space race" to the Moon, it is not hard to imagine what would be spent
to claim the stars before the other powers do.

This colonization time is a time of strife on the Earth. Big powers are
eating
up small powers and grabbing all the land they can. There is war on most
of the continents. There has even been use of nuclear weapons (against
Israel). This would provide great impetus to multiply a power's holding
among the stars (numbers survival strategy). 

In addition, colonies can:
 - Provide rare materials
 - Provide food away from the irradiated areas on earth
 - Provide relief from overpopulation
 - Increase the taxable population
 - Provide military bases (and support for forward forces)
 - Provide tariff income (company store scenario)
 - Increase the power's status in the UN (We represent over 100 worlds!)
 - Provide maximum security prisons
 - Provide sweatshops (you don't work? You don't eat!)
 - Provide new medicinal resources

-----
Brian Bell
bkb@beol.net
Full Thrust Ship Registry:
http://www.ftsr.org/
Expanded GZG Future History:
http://www.ftsr.org/gzg/gzghist.html	   
-----

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Barclay, Tom [SMTP:tomb@bitheads.com]
> Sent: Monday, October 16, 2000 11:21 AM
> To:	Gzg Digest (E-mail)
> Subject:	Population modelling
> 
> Beth, 
> 
> In answer to some of your comments:
> 
> When I said it would be economically difficult to ship out millions of
> people, I meant that. Your point about logistics was taken, but what I
> meant
> was 
>	a) moving bulk volume of people in FT takes ridiculous amounts
of
> mass
>	b) ridculous amounts of mass cost points, which presumably
equate to
> $$$
>	c) protecting these people convoys would be a must 
> So the task is huge logistically and hence economically. 
> 
> The justification for c) above is the nature of the GZGverse. Look at
the
> canon history - conflicts running almost all the time. If you could
> obliterate 100K or even 10K of your opponents, I'm sure you'd find at
> least
> one enemy willing to do that. And as soon as somebody blows up 1 big
> transport or 10, then everyone must gaurd them. And THAT would take a
huge
> investment of people. 
> 
[snip]

> And as for the high birth rates in the colonies... it could be done
that
> way. But we're assuming that an agro-bot costs a lot to make on
Taliban
> IV.
> It might not. If we have a "colony kit" which includes an autominer
and a
> nano-factory which converts local fauna and minerals into things like
a
> simple harvester or planter machine, then costs of transport are
avoided,
> and such factory/automation technologies should be light/robust/cost
> efficient/mass efficient by 2190, given the development of stardrive
and
> other things. Only utterly impoverished colonies would lack these
basics
> (IMV) - perhaps the ESU or IF might not even bother with these, or
perhaps
> some individdual colonies can't afford these systems even though they
> aren't
> too expensive - but similarly they would be doubtful able to afford
the
> medical tech that will give them a mean lifespan of 70-80. If this
medical
> tech is believable, then we can assume they have farm systems to help
and
> thus require less labour. Correspondingly, they probably want fewer
mouths
> to feed, so 8 children would be rare. Penal colonies are also another
> exception, but people might even sterilize prisoners... the last thing
I'd
> want is my dissidents overpopulating and coming back at my empire 100
> years
> down the road....
> 
> As to the GZGverse "MegaModel" - it's on the stack of tasks to take a
> swing
> at over the winter. So "I'll be in touch" (and no excuses about little
> things like Theses shall be acceptable... if need be I'll straighten
your
> "advisor" out on what constitutes a "priority".... *wink*). 
> 
> Tom
> 
> 
> 
> ------------------------------------------
> Thomas R. S. Barclay
> Voice: (613) 722-3232 ext 349
> e-mail: tomb@bitheads.com
> 
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