Population modelling

Beth, 

In answer to some of your comments:

When I said it would be economically difficult to ship out millions of
people, I meant that. Your point about logistics was taken, but what I
meant
was 
	a) moving bulk volume of people in FT takes ridiculous amounts
of
mass
	b) ridculous amounts of mass cost points, which presumably
equate to
$$$
	c) protecting these people convoys would be a must 
So the task is huge logistically and hence economically. 

The justification for c) above is the nature of the GZGverse. Look at
the
canon history - conflicts running almost all the time. If you could
obliterate 100K or even 10K of your opponents, I'm sure you'd find at
least
one enemy willing to do that. And as soon as somebody blows up 1 big
transport or 10, then everyone must gaurd them. And THAT would take a
huge
investment of people. 

A 4% growth rate is VERY high for a human population, I concur. It could
happen I suppose. 

Thank you for providing UN numbers. I'm happy with Earth at 15-20
billion.
What was your prediction for the capability of the Biosphere (carrying
capacity) in 2185? Presuming advances in recycling, energy production,
green
technologies, biotechnology, etc.... I would think that supporting
numbers
of up to 40 billion (in bad straights...) might be possible and that
supporting 15 billion might not be more than mildly taxing (as an
average...
knowing human distribution of resources/money, some areas will be
awesome,
others real crappy). The die-back scenario certainly is interesting. 

If we believe the off-Earth pop should be in the 15-25% range, that
suggests
2.25 to 5 billion people all together off earth. Enough to get some
votes,
but not to control the political frameworks of the day. Or so says I,
YMMV
:)

As to my comment about economics and birth rates, and your reply about
education:
	a) generally, but not always, education is more prevalent in
prosperous nations
	b) women in the work force tends to equal women not having huge
families or having no family at all
	c) prosperity tends to be its own limiter - if the cost of a
kids is
15% of your posh lifestyle, I've seen a lot of folks unwilling to give
up
the prosperity and their freedom - but this is a byproduct of wealthy,
well
paid professional ladies in quite a few cases (not a good or bad thing,
just
an observation)

And as for the high birth rates in the colonies... it could be done that
way. But we're assuming that an agro-bot costs a lot to make on Taliban
IV.
It might not. If we have a "colony kit" which includes an autominer and
a
nano-factory which converts local fauna and minerals into things like a
simple harvester or planter machine, then costs of transport are
avoided,
and such factory/automation technologies should be light/robust/cost
efficient/mass efficient by 2190, given the development of stardrive and
other things. Only utterly impoverished colonies would lack these basics
(IMV) - perhaps the ESU or IF might not even bother with these, or
perhaps
some individdual colonies can't afford these systems even though they
aren't
too expensive - but similarly they would be doubtful able to afford the
medical tech that will give them a mean lifespan of 70-80. If this
medical
tech is believable, then we can assume they have farm systems to help
and
thus require less labour. Correspondingly, they probably want fewer
mouths
to feed, so 8 children would be rare. Penal colonies are also another
exception, but people might even sterilize prisoners... the last thing
I'd
want is my dissidents overpopulating and coming back at my empire 100
years
down the road....

As to the GZGverse "MegaModel" - it's on the stack of tasks to take a
swing
at over the winter. So "I'll be in touch" (and no excuses about little
things like Theses shall be acceptable... if need be I'll straighten
your
"advisor" out on what constitutes a "priority".... *wink*). 

Tom

------------------------------------------
Thomas R. S. Barclay
Voice: (613) 722-3232 ext 349
e-mail: tomb@bitheads.com

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