Re: [HIST] Population question.

At 12:12 PM 3/4/99 +1000, you wrote:
>G'day one and all,
>
>	The IAS is just about ready for global exposure, but before
>I put it forward I've got one question. You may have hashed
>this out already when I wasn't paying attention - especially
>on the gzg-pedia list - but what population sizes did you
>guys finally nut out for the big guys/minor nations/your own
>inventions? I've run a number of simple simulations based
>on a range of feasible assumptions and was just wondering
>what ranges you'd come up with so I could go with the
>most appropriate outcome.

  Geez, not this again. :-) Well, as an illustration, my  ::mumble::
Free
State has a population of somewhere around fourteen million. This after
about 120 years of 3.5% annual "natural" (not including immigration)
growth, plus gradually growing immigration (129,281 immigrants in 2183).
We
discussed what growth rate would be "realistic", but never really seemed
to
agree on a rate that seemed appropriate. We all pretty much agreed that
the
colonists, for the most part, will have very good medical tech to keep
babies and old folks alive, and with all that empty space  families
would
probably have no compunction about having as many kids as possible (few
ZPGers on a planet with a million residents). Also added into the mix
were
various flavors of exotic biotech, artificial wombs, induced mutiple
births
and the like. I settled on 3.5% though to me that seemed a bit high. One
of
these days I'm going to do some more in depth analysis and see what I
can
come up with. Don't expect results anytime soon.  :-)
  Keep in mind that the Free State is cheerfully a third-(or even
fourth-)
rate system what claims about forty starships in its Navy (not all of
which
are even warships). Their standing in local space stems from a centuries
singleminded effort to grow not only a population, but a real live
functioning economy, and the utter lack of an enemy that stands higher
than
second rate. Oh, and being further out than pretty much everyone else
doesn't hurt either. 

>Cheers
>
>Beth

Likewise.

Don