RE: [FT] OFFICIAL RULING REQUEST (was Re: Couple of questions)

At 10:16 AM 2/3/99 -0000, you wrote:
>This was the question Mk *probably* remembers. IMO the same ruling
applies
>to PDS - that is if it applies to Salvo Launched Missiles (SLM's) it
applies to
>MT missiles too.
[snip]

Thanks for the info, Tim.  I still want an Official Ruling that can be
properly FAQ'ed in the Fleet Book section, just so there aren't *any*
questions when gaming from group to group.

However, if that's the actual answer, I don't like it - not a bit. 
While
the Salvo Missile is a wonderful abstraction of the Weber/White missile
paradigm, the MT 'Capital' missile makes a very nice representation of
the
Wing Commander style of Torpedo, and I think that I can make a fairly
strong case for treating the two missiles systems differently as far as
point defense and fighter interceptions are concerned.	As far as I'm
concerned, the MT 'Capital' missile has enough disadvantages -
centerline
launch only, no rear-arc attacks, limited mobility - to warrant it's
increased effectiveness against PDS.  Otherwise, it becomes a fairly
useless weapons system as far as damage / points cost / mass cost
tradeoff
are concerned.

Here's the game effects I'd personally like to see ("Salvo Missile"
means a
standard Salvo Missile attack):

System	       Damage:	PDS vs:        Ftr/Class 1 vs:
-------------  -------	----------     ---------------
Salvo Missile  1d6*1d6	1->3=n/a       1->4=n/a
			 4,5=1Kill	  5=1Kill
			   6=2Kill,rr	  6=1Kill,rr

MT Missile     2d6	1->4=n/a       1->5=n/a
			 5,6=Kill	  6=Kill

Given this type of point defense, the average expected damage per attack
against a ship is as follows [*]:

    System vs:	   0 PDS  1 PDS  2 PDS	3 PDS	1 C1   2 C1   3 C1
    -------------  -----  -----  -----	-----	-----  -----  -----
    Salvo Missile  12.25   9.45   6.65	 3.85	10.85	9.45   8.05
    MT Missile	    7.00   4.67   3.11	 2.07	 5.83	4.86   4.05

Notice the nice correlation - the MT missile does roughly half the
average
damage.  Compared against SMRs, it does so at half the mass & point
cost.
SMLs are always more cost effective compared to MT Missiles - unless
your
magazine capacity is one <g>.

If you allow PDS to kill a MT missile only on a 6 per the original MT
rules, then here's the average expected damage per attack:

    System vs:	    0 PDS   1 PDS   2 PDS   3 PDS
    -------------   -----   -----   -----   -----
    Salvo Missile   12.25    9.45    6.65    3.85
    MT Missile	     7.00    5.83    4.86    4.05

Here's what happens if PDS works the same against both (makes the MT
missile basically useless in Fleet Book games):

    System vs:	    0 PDS   1 PDS   2 PDS   3 PDS
    -------------   -----   -----   -----   -----
    Salvo Missile   12.25    9.45    6.65    3.85
    MT Missile	     7.00    3.50    1.75    0.88

=====================================================================
[*] Probabilities were computed as follows:
The Salvo Missiles were abstracted into 'dice'.  The average number of
missiles that are 'on target' in a salvo attack is 3.5.  The average
number
of missile kills by a PDS system, taking in to account the repeating
rerolls on a roll of '6', is 0.8.  The average damage per missile is 3.5
points.

Since we have a cumulative attack total being defended against by a
cumulative total, the average attacks vs the average PDS kills were
simply
summed to determine the final average damage totals.  It's been *quite*
a
while since I took statistics, so someone please correct me if this
premiss
is incorrect (it seems 'right' to me).

salvo @ 3.5 missiles vs 0 PDS = (3.5 - 0) * 3.5 = 12.25 points
salvo @ 3.5 missiles vs 1 PDS = (3.5 - 0.8) * 3.5 = 9.45 pts
salvo @ 3.5 missiles vs 2 PDS = (3.5 - 1.6) * 3.5 = 6.65 pts

The Fighter / Class 1 defenses were calculated in a similar manner, but
the
average kills in this instance is 0.4 instead of 0.8 for PDS.

The MT missile figures I am completely sure of, since this is a simple
repeating probability sum.  MT missiles always average 7 points of
damage
if they hit (standard warheads), and in order to attack they must
survive
*all* PDS fire directed against them.  The probability of success is
computed by raising the success probability by the power of the number
of
PDS defenders as follows:

MT missile @ 7 pts vs 0 PDS = 7 * (4/6)^0 = 7 * 1 = 7 points
MT missile @ 7 pts vs 1 PDS = 7 * (4/6)^1 = 7 * 0.67 = 4.67 points
MT missile @ 7 pts vs 2 PDS = 7 * (4/6)^2 = 7 * 0.44 = 3.11 points

===================================================================
Mark "Hauptmann" Shurtleff
  email: hauptman@sfcmd.com -or- hauptman@concentric.net
  visit the Gear Locker at http://www.sfcmd.com/HeavyGear

 Finagle's Law:
   The perversity of the Universe tends towards the maximum.
===================================================================